The main force of Shanghai aluminum continues to rise, and the actual transaction in the market is not much

Market focus: (1) On July 13, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world exceeded 13 million, and the cumulative number of
deaths exceeded 570,000.
(2) On July 13, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 712,000 tons, unchanged
from last Thursday.
(3) As of July 10, Mymetal surveyed 83 electrolytic aluminum plants in production across the country, with a total inventory of 114,000 tons, down 15,000 tons from last week and 45,500 tons
from the same period last month.

Spot analysis: On July 13, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15300-15340 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15320 yuan / ton, up 620 yuan / ton
per day.
A large account did not receive the goods
in East China within the day.
There are many inquirers in the morning market, the holders hold the price, but the actual transaction is not much, after 10:30 spot transaction heat is higher, but mostly for middlemen to reverse goods to enhance market trading activity, due to the lack of large-scale transactions, the overall transaction between traders is poor
.
Downstream intraday consumption is light, because aluminum prices rose by more than 600 yuan / ton from the previous day, downstream fear of heights reached a peak, and replenishment was very small
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 100157 tons, an increase of 2535 tons per day; On July 10, LME aluminum stocks were 1626550 tons, down 6,125 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract are 92497 lots, minus 8808 lots per day, short positions are 106935 lots, daily minus 10488 lots, net short positions are 14438 lots, daily minus 1680 lots, long and short are reduced, and net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On July 13, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2008 continued to rise
.
The trend of strong and weak aluminum prices continues, the Shanghai ratio rises to further expand the import profit window, and subsequent overseas source imports are expected to increase, coupled with the long-tail effect of the overseas epidemic, export orders are still weak; At the same time, the aluminum processing fee was further reduced, the downstream procurement willingness was suppressed, and the upward action of aluminum prices was weakened
.
However, recent strong data from major economies has boosted market optimism; And the performance of domestic demand is still down, Shanghai aluminum inventories are still declining, short-term supply tension continues, and support for aluminum prices still exists
.
In terms of spot, a large account did not receive goods in East China within a day
.
There are many inquirers in the morning market, and the holders hold the price, but the actual transaction is not much, the downstream fear of heights has reached a peak, and there is very little
replenishment.
Technically, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum has reduced its position, and there is resistance above the 14900 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock will adjust
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2008 contract can operate in the range of 14500-14800 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.