The main force of Shanghai aluminum continues to fall, and downstream demand is still marginally weak

Aluminum enterprises in Yunnan are still affected by electricity restrictions, and recently there is news that the pressure on electricity consumption in aluminum-producing provinces such as Guangxi and Guizhou has increased, and some aluminum industry chain enterprises have received power rationing requirements, which will have a certain impact
on production capacity.
The supply-side disturbance may strengthen, creating conditions
for the rise of Shanghai aluminum.

On the demand side, the Qingzhen annual output of 100,000 tons of aluminum profile production project was completed and put into operation, and the downstream demand for aluminum ingot production increased
.
Overseas, due to workers' strikes, Rio Tinto's aluminum smelter in Kitimat, Canada, cut production by 35% to 150,000 tons/year, and monthly output fell by more than 20,000 tons
.
The products of this factory are mainly exported to Japan, South Korea, the United States and other countries, and have little
impact on domestic aluminum imports.
However, considering the gradual recovery of the global economy and the recovery of overseas demand for aluminum, the production reduction information has a boost to Lunaluminum
.

In terms of inventory, aluminum ingots were 782,000 tons on Monday, down 27,000 tons from the previous Thursday, and are still in the destocking cycle, of which Wuxi contributed 15,000 tons of decline, mainly affected by the transportation blockage caused by the disaster in Henan, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the recovery of
transportation.

On the macro front, the Fed's interest rate meeting held in the early hours of Thursday morning, the result of which is to continue to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate, while Fed Chairman Powell continues to maintain an accommodative stance, the results of this meeting will boost market sentiment
.

Fundamentally, the second round of storage selling began to bid, the transportation problems caused by heavy rain in Henan are alleviating, and downstream demand in the off-season on the consumer side is still marginally weakening
.
In terms of price, because the supply and demand ends of aluminum will still benefit from the impact of the concept of "carbon neutrality" for a long time in the future, and the macro liquidity inflection point has not yet officially arrived, the winning rate of unilateral bargain hunting is still high, and it is also recommended to treat it with a long idea in the cross-variety arbitrage strategy
.