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Today, the main contract of Shanghai rubber has been replaced to the 1701 contract, and after the upward rush, it fell back to close the long shadow meteor, opening at 12700, the highest 12930, the lowest at 12620, and closing at 12665, up 60 points, or 0.
48%.
In order to change the price depression caused by the global rubber oversupply, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia jointly issued export restrictions to save rubber prices this year, vowing to cut rubber exports by 615,000 tons
within six months from March.
However, the policy has been implemented for many months, but the actual implementation has not achieved the expected purpose
.
As far as Thailand is concerned, according to the export restriction policy, the country's rubber exports from March to August should have decreased by 324,000 tons year-on-year, but Thai customs statistics show that the country's total rubber exports from January to June reached 2.
2516 million tons, a sharp increase of 11.
27%
over the same period last year.
It can be seen that the number of reductions committed is clearly inconsistent
with actual implementation.
This is the case in Thailand, and Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to find it difficult to comply with treaties
restricting exports.
Therefore, it can basically be judged that the export restriction policy of rubber-producing countries has failed, the oversupply pressure brought about by the growth of export volume has not improved, and the weak pattern of rubber prices will continue
.
As the delivery date approaches, bulls are afraid of the pressure of huge warehouse receipts and have turned to the far month market, and it is expected that the market will be flat after the near month 1609 contract, while the far month 1701 contract is slightly stronger, but due to fundamental constraints, the rebound space is limited
.
Today's plate ended with a long shadow, which brought technical haze, so let's rest and wait and see
.
Based on the above analysis, although in the context of the transfer of positions for months, the Shanghai Rubber Far Month 1701 contract will be favored by the transfer of bulls' forces and usher in a slight rebound trend, but the overall upside is expected to be limited
.
Because in the context of single measures to intervene in rubber prices, even if multiple policies can be introduced in the future, it will not be able to fundamentally reverse the decline
.
In other words, the birth of the new main contract of Shanghai Rubber is also difficult to get rid of the pattern of low prices in the medium and long term
.
