The main contract of Shanghai aluminum continues to rise, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong

Market focus, at the end of July, China's broad money (M2) balance was 191.
94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.
1%, and the growth rate was 0.
4 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 55.
3 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.
1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.
3 and 2 percentage points
lower than the same period last year.
In July, the year-on-year decline in automobile production and sales continued to narrow, with production and sales reaching 1.
8 million units, down 5% and 12.
1% y/y, respectively, and down 5.
4 and 5.
3 percentage points
y/y, respectively.
In June 2019, the national aluminum output was 4.
333 million tons, down 3.
0% year-on-year, and the national aluminum output from January to June this year was 23.
373 million tons, down 0.
5%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis, on August 13, spot A00 aluminum quotation of 14230-14270 yuan / ton, the average price of 14250 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.
In the morning, a large household took the lead in receiving goods, its receipt price is more recognized by the market, the holder actively shipped, the middleman is also active, there are more receivers, with the large household receiving more than 10,000 tons of goods after leaving the market, the aluminum period fell slightly, the market transaction heat faded, the transaction price between traders fell to around 14230 yuan / ton, at this time the shippers have increased but the actual transaction volume is not as good as the previous period
.
Because the increase in aluminum prices exceeded the downstream psychological acceptance range, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and procurement was scarce
.

Warehouse receipt inventory, Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Tuesday totaled 137305 tons, a daily decrease of 112 tons; On August 12, LME aluminum stocks were 991525 tons, down 6,725 tons
per day.

The main position, the top 20 long positions of the main 1910 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 99220 lots, a daily increase of 9042 lots, short positions are 114413 lots, a daily increase of 6552 lots, a net short position of 15193 lots, a daily decrease of 2490 lots, long and short increases, and net space decreases
.

The main 1910 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose
sharply during the day.
Macro market sentiment has eased, the market is concerned about the US July CPI data, fundamentally, upstream alumina prices stopped falling flat, and midstream electrolytic aluminum inventories continue to degrade, which is positive for aluminum prices, but downstream demand performance is weak, forming some pressure
on aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, in the morning, a large household took the lead in receiving goods, its receipt price was more recognized by the market, the holders actively shipped, the middlemen were also active, and there were more receivers, because the increase in aluminum prices exceeded the downstream psychological acceptance range, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the procurement was scarce
.
Technically, the daily MACD red column growth of the main 1910 contract of Shanghai aluminum, focusing on the pressure above the 14500 position, is expected to adjust the short-term shock
.