The macro atmosphere is not good, and the demand off-season aluminum prices continue to be weak

On the supply side, there is still room for electrolytic aluminum profits, production is recovering rapidly, and the operating rate of enterprises has risen
steadily.
Although the resumption of domestic electrolytic aluminum production and the acceleration of production have boosted domestic electrolytic aluminum production, the geopolitical tensions in the early stage have further affected the stability of overseas electrolytic aluminum production, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production will be affected to a certain extent; Driven by high profits, some enterprises have resumed production on the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply side, and the current production capacity is 40 million tons, and the planned new production capacity has gradually begun to be released
.

On the demand side, the Fed has started the cycle of interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction, and the trend of overseas economic highs has been established, dragging down the overseas demand for electrolytic aluminum, but due to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the rise in energy prices has led to an amplification
of the supply gap.
Domestic demand still needs further efforts
from the steady growth policy.
With the expectation of overseas shortfall, the expectation of increasing the export of China's aluminum products in the later period has risen, and the current consumption is gradually recovering, and the demand for aluminum rods, plates, strips and foils has improved
.
New energy vehicle sales in May were still bright, exceeding market expectations, with May new energy vehicle sales +105% year-on-year, and cumulative sales from January to May reaching 2.
003 million units, a year-on-year increase of 111.
2%.

In terms of inventory, aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum restart the destocking rhythm
.
As of July 14, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 708,000 tons, down 29,000 tons
from last week.

On the whole, the Fed's interest rate hike expectations still exist, the macro atmosphere at home and abroad is not good, coupled with the decline in demand under the off-season cycle, the decline in the aluminum ingot social treasury continues to narrow, and it is expected that the inflection point of the accumulation will now and the accumulation trend will continue
for a long time.
Aluminum prices have reached a new low, and have now fallen back to near the cost line, some aluminum plants are in the negative profit range, and there is news of new production cuts overseas, but domestic supply has not been affected, and the level of Nissan continues to rise
.
If there is no policy guidance or new large-scale production reduction news, aluminum prices may continue to operate weakly in the near future
.