The macro atmosphere continues to be bearish and the center of gravity of copper prices continues to shift

Last week, Shanghai copper highs retreated
.
The average weekly settlement price of the current month's contract was 63,766 yuan / ton, down 406 yuan / ton per day; The average price of the previous week was 67176 yuan / ton, down 5.
35%
from the previous month.

Last week, London copper rushed back down
.
The average price of LME copper in the first four trading days was 8351.
25 US dollars / ton, down 21 US dollars / ton per day; The average price of the previous week was 8754.
75 US dollars / ton, down 403.
5 US dollars / ton, or 4.
61%,
compared with the average price of the previous week.

In terms of spot, the trading performance of the spot market is calm, the holders mostly adjust the price of shipments for cash, the willingness of the receiver to receive the goods is low, only maintain the rigid need to buy, the overall transaction is deadlocked, the transaction of low-priced sources is relatively smooth, and the copper price continues to fall, making the market wait and see mood significant
.

On the supply side, overseas copper mine disruptions continue, but refined copper production is expected to maintain a high growth rate driven by high profits driven by the fact that Chinese smelters and Antofagasta have finalized copper concentrate processing fees of US$80/mt and 8.
0 cents/lb
.
Coupled with the brief opening of the import window, the net import volume of electrolytic copper may increase slightly month-on-month, and the dematerialization of domestic copper stocks will slow down, and the accumulation is expected to rise, from tight balance to surplus
.
Shandong smelter resumed production, logistics and transportation resumed smooth, smelting centralized maintenance was completed one after another, and the forecast of electrolytic copper production in June was 854,200 tons, higher than the same period last year
.

In terms of demand, the overall domestic demand is still weak, especially the real estate sector and infrastructure sector continue to be sluggish, and the consumption of home appliances is also sluggish, which drags down the demand outlook
for copper metal to a certain extent.
Coupled with the approaching off-season, consumer demand is becoming more and more cold, downstream procurement is staying on the sidelines amid the price decline, but new energy vehicle sales are beautiful, the national economic data in June has recovered signs, and the policy continues to support, the overall consumption is still optimistic, there is no need to be too pessimistic
.

In terms of inventory, Shanghai copper stocks continued to rise last week, with a cumulative increase of 9,508 tons to 66,661 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.
64%.

London copper stocks turned up last week, accumulating an increase of 13,825 tons to 126,850 tons, an increase of 12.
23%.

Overall, Shanghai copper peaked and fell last week, refreshing a stage low, down 4%.

The macro atmosphere continues to be empty, the central banks are actively raising interest rates, making recession fears lingering, coupled with the worst performance of U.
S.
stocks in the first half of the year, and the sharp drop in crude oil prices put pressure on the metal market, coupled with the overall domestic demand performance is weak, inventories have increased again, the center of gravity of copper prices continues to shift, and Shanghai copper is close to the 61,000 mark
.