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On Thursday morning, Shanghai aluminum opened at 14225 yuan / ton, after the opening of the short in, aluminum prices under pressure downward low touched 14080 yuan / ton, then long and short around 14110 yuan / ton line of competition, the end of the session short concentrated exit, Shanghai aluminum repair part of the decline closed at 14145 yuan / ton, the volume reduced to 248184 lots, the position decreased by 4034 hands to 243264 lots
.
The Shanghai aluminum 1705 contract position increased by 11406 lots to 240888 lots, and the 5-day moving average and Bollinger band mid-band in the 4-hour K-line chart began to show support
.
At present, the long-short divergence is obviously strong, because the environmental protection policy is implemented in the fourth quarter, so in the medium term, 14500 yuan / ton is still the first target of the bulls, but the continuous increase in spot inventory makes the pressure on the supply side greater, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the short-term high corrective correction of Shanghai aluminum
.
In terms of the external market, Lun aluminum opened at 1943 US dollars / ton, after a slight decline at the beginning of the session, Lun aluminum under pressure below the daily moving average narrow range at 1938 US dollars / ton line, into the European trading session aluminum price amplitude intensified, the beginning of the session repair the decline back to 1943 US dollars / ton, and then the rapid bottom out of the small V, the low touched 1932.
5 US dollars / ton, as of 17:18 Lun aluminum stable above the daily moving average recorded 1939 US dollars / ton, Bollinger band upper resistance is strong, pay attention to the domestic Shanghai
。
In terms of the market, the center of gravity of aluminum fell back to the 14,000 yuan / ton mark before noon, the Shanghai transaction concentration was 13800-13810 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 220-200 yuan / ton, the Wuxi transaction concentration was 13790-13800 yuan / ton, and the Hangzhou transaction concentration was 13820-13840 yuan / ton
.
The onward action of aluminum fell back after the lack of action, the receiving holders were willing to exchange cash, the middlemen's own inventory was sufficient, the goods were stopped, and they waited and watched the market, and downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the overall transaction showed that the supply exceeded demand
.
In the late afternoon, aluminum fluctuated in a narrow range around the Wansi Pass that month, and the spot transaction did not make waves, and the Shanghai transaction maintained 13800-13810 yuan / ton, with less
transactions.
In terms of inventory, as of March 2, the total social aluminum inventory in the five places in the country was 1.
028 million tons, an increase of 75,000 tons from last Thursday, and the inventory continued to increase and exceeded the 1 million ton mark, and the discount continued to expand
slightly.
On the whole, the policy speculation is still continuing at this stage, but the impact on supply and demand in the near future is limited, and the foundation for aluminum price rise is not solid; Dragged down by high inventories and the spot market, aluminum prices still have downside risks
.
On the market, Shanghai aluminum rushed back down and increased positions, the high short force is obvious, and the short idea operation
is maintained in the medium term.
