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On Monday morning, Shanghai aluminum opened at 14120 yuan / ton, the early day aluminum price fell slightly to 14060 yuan / ton after the long concentrated entry, Shanghai aluminum put volume at a high level touched 14180 yuan / ton, high bears actively pressured, early entry bulls have left the market to avoid risk, Shanghai aluminum all the way down fell through the 10,000 mark touched 13960 yuan / ton, afternoon bulls confidence gradually rising, pushing up aluminum prices slowly up, Shanghai aluminum once rebounded to 14100 yuan / ton, and then empty into the flat, aluminum prices weakened again back to 14025 yuan / ton line, With the help of bulls entering the market at the end of the session, Shanghai aluminum recovered the daily moving average and the 5-day moving average, closing at 14070 yuan / ton
.
The long-short divergence within the day is intensifying, out of the deep V, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum may fluctuate greatly in the short term
.
In terms of external trading, Lun aluminum opened at 1960 US dollars / ton in the morning, during the Asian market Lun aluminum by the domestic Shanghai aluminum guidance, the trend is weak, the low touch 1947 US dollars / ton, although the center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum trading center has moved up, but Lun aluminum rebounded to 1956 US dollars / ton after obvious weak performance, down to 1948 US dollars / ton, into the European trading session, the base metal trend is more differentiated, Lun aluminum accelerated downward, the low touched 1938 US dollars / ton, as of 16:47 Lun aluminum reported 1939 US dollars / ton, Pay attention to the 20-day support and the domestic Shanghai aluminum trend
.
In terms of spot, the aluminum futures contract rose slightly at the beginning of the session, and then continued to fall, closing at 13920 yuan / ton
in the afternoon.
In the morning, Shanghai trading concentrated at 13810 yuan / ton, discount 170 ~ 150 yuan / ton, with the decline of aluminum in the future, spot and decline range is small, Shanghai transaction concentration 13780-13790 yuan / ton, the discount of the month narrowed to 130-110 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration 13790-13810 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 13820-13840 yuan / ton
.
The morning transaction was acceptable, and the release of aluminum dampened the enthusiasm of the holders, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and the overall transaction of the market was not good
.
In the afternoon, the low level of the market rebounded, and the quotation of the holder was raised, and the transaction was concentrated at 13840~13850 yuan / ton
.
In terms of the industry, data released by Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network showed that the output of alumina in March was 5.
831 million tons, an increase of 26.
82% year-on-year, and the average daily output was 188,000 tons, an increase of 1.
6% month-on-month; China's electrolytic aluminum output in March was 3.
112 million tons, an increase of 23.
0% year-on-year, and the total domestic electrolytic aluminum output in the first quarter of this year was 8.
988 million tons, an increase of 22.
1%
year-on-year.
In terms of inventory, as of April 10, the total social aluminum inventory in the five places in the country was 1.
215 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from last Thursday, and the inventory continued to recover slightly, and the spot aluminum ingot discount continued
.
The output and inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to increase, and the phased oversupply was obvious, and the aluminum price lacked sustained momentum before supply and demand improved; However, from the perspective of cost, the profit space of aluminum enterprises is narrowing, and cost has become an important support
for aluminum prices.
At the same time, the market speculates about the future supply-side reduction expectations, and before the expectations are falsified, aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate strongly, continuing to run
above 14,000.
