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On Thursday, the main monthly 1606 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 12,000 yuan, with an intraday high of 12,070 yuan and a low of 11,915 yuan, and closed at 11,960 at the end of the session, unchanged
from the previous trading day.
The market is currently mainly focused on the upcoming release of China's first-quarter GDP data, and it is expected that aluminum prices may continue to move sideways in the short term, and it is recommended that investors can maintain a wait-and-see attitude first
.
In terms of external trading, China's aluminum exports in March increased sharply to boost market enthusiasm, Lun aluminum rose slightly during the day, and the upper support focused on $1600
.
At 16:23 Beijing time, the LME 3-month aluminum was $1555.
5, up $
2.
5 from the previous session.
Macro: As the threshold inflation of 2% for the US interest rate hike is likely to be achieved in the second quarter, so the interest rate hike window may open after the second quarter, but the expectation of interest rate hikes at the end of the second quarter is often the main factor of market volatility, so the risk of aluminum prices in the second quarter will mainly come from the gathering of market sentiment before the interest rate hike
.
In terms of market: the spot trading price of Yangtze River was 11830-11870 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton; Guangdong South Reserve reported 11940-12040 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; Hua reported 11940-11960 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton; The average domestic spot trading price is between
11840-11880 yuan / ton.
Aluminum fell sharply, cargo holders were actively shipped, middlemen were actively replenishing at low prices, and market transactions were more active
than yesterday.
Supply and demand: Aluminum and aluminum exports rose sharply in March year-on-year, indicating that aluminum demand was supported, and the growth of domestic aluminum consumption on the whole stabilized
.
From the perspective of supply, although about 400,000 were put into operation in the first quarter, the operating capacity was still lower than the same period; The decline in inventories continued, with spot goods continuing to fall by 38,000 to 732,000 tonnes this week, and inventory consumption days were less than 10 days, indicating tight
aluminum supply.
In summary, the current long-short divergence is gradually obvious, it is expected that the amplitude of Shanghai aluminum will increase in the near future, and it is difficult to appear a clear trend before the supply and demand situation is clear
.
Therefore, investors are still advised to look
at the market.
Activists can try long positions below 11950 yuan / ton, short-term operation, stop loss 11750 yuan / ton
.
