The long-short divergence intensifies The upside of Shanghai aluminum in the later period may be limited

In terms of the external market, affected by the market panic on Friday, Lun aluminum opened low at 1743 US dollars / ton in the morning, and quickly rose to a high above the 5-day moving average after the opening touched 1783 US dollars / ton, and then dipped to the daily average of 1769 US dollars / ton near the smooth operation, in the afternoon affected by the domestic Shanghai aluminum Lun aluminum low recovery, into the European trading session, Lun aluminum continued to sort out around the daily moving average, then the US dollar rose sharply, the base metal fell under pressure, Lun aluminum fell to 1751 US dollars / ton, as of 17:04, Lun aluminum 1759.
5 US dollars / ton, the evening data surface is light, it is expected that Lun aluminum to maintain volatility continue to try to compete for the daily moving average, below pay attention to the 5-day moving average effective support
.

In terms of industry, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's primary aluminum production in October was 2.
73 million tons, an increase of 1.
1% year-on-year, and China's primary aluminum production in the first 10 months was 26.
18 million tons, down 1.
1% from the same period last year; The signing ceremony of Huafon Aluminum's annual output of 200,000 tons of aluminum plate and foil project was held in CNMC, and the project is expected to reach an annual production capacity
of 700,000 tons of aluminum composite materials.

In terms of the market, aluminum fell all the way before noon that month
.
Shanghai trading concentrated 15300-15340 yuan / ton, for the month premium 50-200 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration 15290-15330 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 15350-15410 yuan / ton
.
Near the month of change, the future aluminum fell in the month, the next month and the month of the price difference wide fluctuation to about 700 yuan / ton, the willingness of the holder to exchange cash at a high level is extremely strong, with the decline of the future aluminum month and the price is lowered, the middleman cautious mood is gradually stronger, downstream enterprises are afraid of heights, waiting for the month change, the overall transaction is relatively cold
。 In the late afternoon, aluminum stabilized and rebounded in the month, the willingness of holders to exchange cash was extremely positive, Shanghai quotations continued to decline, quotations concentrated 15280 ~ 15300 yuan / ton, Wuxi quotations spanned 15180-15230 yuan / ton, although the quotation was significantly reduced, but the month is still a premium state, middlemen and downstream enterprises do not buy it, it is difficult to see the transaction
.

In terms of inventory, data show that on November 14, the domestic five social aluminum stocks were 283,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from last Thursday, and some northwest automobile aluminum ingots in Gongyi area arrived at the weekend, the inventory growth rate was more obvious, and the increase in arrivals in East and South China was limited and not concentrated
.
Smelters said that shipments to Xinjiang are still not smooth and difficult to increase rapidly; The scale of aluminum ingots transported from Shandong to East China is relatively abundant, and the release volume
has not slowed down.
As inventories continue to recover, and the delivery date approaches, spot premiums are gradually declining; With the easing of spot tensions, aluminum prices have risen significantly weakly
.
At the same time, domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October hit a new high in the year, and the resumption of production and new production capacity are still being released, and it is difficult to be optimistic about the later stage of aluminum prices
.
On the market, the difference between Shanghai and aluminum high long and short has intensified, and the bulls have taken profit and reduced their positions, and the upside space in the later period may be limited
.