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On Wednesday, most of the base metals oscillated to close higher, of which the Shanghai lead 1809 contract rose 2.
58%, becoming the leader in the rise, while the aluminum market long and short divergence increased, Shanghai aluminum bucked the trend and fell, the weakest performance
.
The Shanghai aluminum 1810 contract fluctuated in a narrow range around 14480 yuan / ton, trading at 14525-14430 yuan / ton during the day, and closing at 14495 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 0.
03% on the day, and Shanghai aluminum faced resistance from M60 above
.
In terms of external trading, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun Aluminum was reported at 2039 US dollars / ton, up slightly by 0.
32% per day, and its performance was stronger than that of Shanghai Aluminum
.
In terms of spot, on August 8, the Guangdong spot market transaction was concentrated in 14430-14440 yuan / ton, the price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai continued to fall slightly to 140 yuan / ton, the holder slightly raised the price, the middleman has a certain confidence in the future market price, the willingness to receive goods has improved, the overall transaction is acceptable, the aluminum rod processing fee continues to be slightly reduced, of which the 90mm specification aluminum rod processing fee is 410-450 yuan / ton, and the 120mm specification is 390-430 yuan / ton, The 150/178mm specification is concentrated at 370-410 yuan / ton, and the transaction is poor
.
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index continued to fall under pressure and is now trading around 95 as the Australian dollar rose as the euro rebound and the renminbi continued to stabilize pushed the Australian dollar higher
.
China's exports rose 12.
2% year-on-year and imports 27.
3% year-on-year in July, almost double the previous value, both of which exceeded expectations, with a trade surplus of $28.
05 billion, indicating that the impact of the Sino-US trade war has not yet been felt
.
In terms of industry, China Customs data show that China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July were 519,000 tons, up 1.
8% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year, and the monthly export volume hit the second highest level in history, with a record high of 542685 tons set in December 2014, and the cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products from January to July was 3.
231 million tons, an increase of 13.
6% year-on-year, the highest level in the same period of the previous year.
The continued depreciation of the renminbi and favorable arbitrage conditions at home and abroad overshadowed the impact
of US import tariffs and intensified trade frictions.
The increase in China's unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports is conducive to driving domestic aluminum market demand and conducive to the rebound
of aluminum prices.
Overall, Shanghai aluminum rebounded to around M60, facing a long and short breakthrough, but driven by the sharp increase in China's aluminum exports and the continuous decline in domestic aluminum inventory, aluminum prices are expected to achieve an upward breakthrough, and it is operationally recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1810 contract can be backed by 14300 yuan above the dip, the entry reference around 14420 yuan, the target is 14650 yuan / ton
.
