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From 2020 to 2022, China's polypropylene capacity will expand rapidly, and the new capacity is expected to reach more than 13 million tons
.
2020-2022 China's new polypropylene production capacity commissioning plan
2020-2022 China's new polypropylene production capacity commissioning planIn recent years, China's polypropylene production capacity has continued to expand rapidly.
It is estimated that the new production capacity will be 5.
35 million tons in 2020, 3.
45 million tons in 2021, and 4.
45 million tons in 2022
.
In terms of raw material sources, coal and propane continue to develop rapidly.
In addition, new integrated refining and chemical projects have also become an important part of new production capacity
.
Different Sources, Process Routes of Polypropylene
Different Sources, Process Routes of PolypropyleneOil, coal, methanol, propane, and ethane can all be used as raw materials to produce propylene monomer, and propylene can be polymerized to produce polypropylene
.
1.
With the continuous advancement of raw material diversification, we will compare the profit charts of different processes:
coal head
Relying on cheap coal resources, the cost of coal-to-olefins is lower than that of oil-based production, but in the era of low oil prices, the competitiveness of coal-to-olefins has been severely impacted
.
Relatively speaking, the competitiveness of methanol to olefins is weak
.
oil head
The cost and profit of the crude oil route are closely related to the price of crude oil, so the fluctuation of crude oil price is very important.
From the perspective of gross profit of products, as the price of crude oil continues to bottom out, the profitability of oil-based products is better
.
PDH
The price of propane directly determines the production cost of propane dehydrogenation.
The fluctuation of propane has a huge impact on the cost.
The high-purity propane required for propane dehydrogenation in China is basically dependent on imports, so there are certain uncertainties
.
Second, we are looking at the cost comparison of polypropylene production from different devices:
The cost difference of kerosene is obvious, and the coal-to-olefin project needs higher profit margins to achieve the same investment return; the variable cost of the coal-to-olefin project is low, and the market price is low, and it will not reduce or stop production;
1.
With the continuous advancement of raw material diversification, we will compare the profit charts of different processes:
1.
With the continuous advancement of raw material diversification, we will compare the profit charts of different processes:
With the continuous advancement of raw material diversification, we will compare the profit charts of different processes:
coal head
Relying on cheap coal resources, the cost of coal-to-olefins is lower than that of oil-based production, but in the era of low oil prices, the competitiveness of coal-to-olefins has been severely impacted
.
Relatively speaking, the competitiveness of methanol to olefins is weak
.
The price of methanol fluctuates at 1800-3000 yuan per ton all the year round.
In the comparison of various routes, the cost has always been high, which has caused great difficulties in the profitability of the project of producing polyolefins through external extraction of methanol in coastal areas
.
Therefore, methanol-to-olefins will still be at a loss for a long time
.
oil head
The cost and profit of the crude oil route are closely related to the price of crude oil, so the fluctuation of crude oil price is very important.
From the perspective of gross profit of products, as the price of crude oil continues to bottom out, the profitability of oil-based products is better
.
PDH
The price of propane directly determines the production cost of propane dehydrogenation.
The fluctuation of propane has a huge impact on the cost.
The high-purity propane required for propane dehydrogenation in China is basically dependent on imports, so there are certain uncertainties
.
Donghua Energy is the largest liquefied gas trader in China and holds most of the propane import resources; in addition, Wanhua Chemical is actively contacting shipbuilding companies to build ships and transport propane
.
Second, we are looking at the cost comparison of polypropylene production from different devices:
coal head
coal headRelying on cheap coal resources, the cost of coal-to-olefins is lower than that of oil-based production, but in the era of low oil prices, the competitiveness of coal-to-olefins has been severely impacted
.
Relatively speaking, the competitiveness of methanol to olefins is weak
.
The price of methanol fluctuates at 1800-3000 yuan per ton all the year round.
In the comparison of various routes, the cost has always been high, which has caused great difficulties in the profitability of the project of producing polyolefins through external extraction of methanol in coastal areas
.
Therefore, methanol-to-olefins will still be at a loss for a long time
.
oil head
oil headThe cost and profit of the crude oil route are closely related to the price of crude oil, so the fluctuation of crude oil price is very important.
From the perspective of gross profit of products, as the price of crude oil continues to bottom out, the profitability of oil-based products is better
.
PDH
PDHThe price of propane directly determines the production cost of propane dehydrogenation.
The fluctuation of propane has a huge impact on the cost.
The high-purity propane required for propane dehydrogenation in China is basically dependent on imports, so there are certain uncertainties
.
Donghua Energy is the largest liquefied gas trader in China and holds most of the propane import resources; in addition, Wanhua Chemical is actively contacting shipbuilding companies to build ships and transport propane
.
Second, we are looking at the cost comparison of polypropylene production from different devices:
Second, we are looking at the cost comparison of polypropylene production from different devices:The cost difference of kerosene is obvious, and the coal-to-olefin project needs higher profit margins to achieve the same investment return; the variable cost of the coal-to-olefin project is low, and the market price is low, and it will not reduce or stop production;
The cost difference of kerosene is obvious, and the coal-to-olefin project needs higher profit margins to achieve the same investment return; the variable cost of the coal-to-olefin project is low, and the market price is low, and it will not reduce or stop production;
When the crude oil price is 80-85 US dollars / barrel, the cost of outsourcing methanol to olefins and naphtha to olefins is equivalent, and outsourcing methanol to olefins is called a noble product
.
The advantages of propane dehydrogenation are that the raw materials and products are single, and the propylene yield is high
.
Good profitability is the main reason for the rapid development of propane dehydrogenation process in China
.
However, there is a problem that cannot be ignored.
The price of raw material propane directly determines the production cost of propane dehydrogenation, so it has a huge impact.
Propane needs to be imported, so it is difficult to control the right to speak
.
Under the current price system, the cost per ton from low to high is: PDH, CTO, naphtha cracking, MTO
.
Among the domestic industrialized olefin production routes in China, the PDH route that exclusively produces propylene has the lowest cost and the strongest competitiveness
.
3.
Economic comparison from different raw material devices:
Economic comparison from different raw material devices:
Then compare the advantages and disadvantages of different production processes to obtain the same amount of olefins.
From the perspective of investment quota alone, the investment quota of CTO and naphtha cracking is significantly higher than that of other types of units
.
The high cost of CTO processing is due to the fact that coal must first be made into methanol, which consumes energy and water
.
In the cost composition of coal-to-olefins, fixed costs account for 60%, raw materials account for only about 25%, and raw materials account for about 80% in the cost composition of methanol-to-olefins.
The cost of coal-to-olefins projects is not sensitive to changes in raw material prices.
Under the high oil price in the past, naphtha cracking lacked competitiveness, which stimulated the optimization of the industry's internal raw material structure (lightweight) and external diversification
.
There is no obvious correlation between the raw material prices of various routes, and it is difficult to determine which route is more advantageous
.
Enterprises should choose a reasonable investment direction according to their own conditions and forecasts of future supply and demand of raw materials and price trends
.
Then compare the advantages and disadvantages of different production processes to obtain the same amount of olefins.
From the perspective of investment quota alone, the investment quota of CTO and naphtha cracking is significantly higher than that of other types of units
.
The high cost of CTO processing is due to the fact that coal must first be made into methanol, which consumes energy and water
.
In the cost composition of coal-to-olefins, fixed costs account for 60%, raw materials account for only about 25%, and raw materials account for about 80% in the cost composition of methanol-to-olefins.
The cost of coal-to-olefins projects is not sensitive to changes in raw material prices.
Under the high oil price in the past, naphtha cracking lacked competitiveness, which stimulated the optimization of the industry's internal raw material structure (lightweight) and external diversification
.
Then compare the advantages and disadvantages of different production processes to obtain the same amount of olefins.
From the perspective of investment quota alone, the investment quota of CTO and naphtha cracking is significantly higher than that of other types of units
.
The high cost of CTO processing is due to the fact that coal must first be made into methanol, which consumes energy and water
.
In the cost composition of coal-to-olefins, fixed costs account for 60%, raw materials account for only about 25%, and raw materials account for about 80% in the cost composition of methanol-to-olefins.
The cost of coal-to-olefins projects is not sensitive to changes in raw material prices.
Under the high oil price in the past, naphtha cracking lacked competitiveness, which stimulated the optimization of the industry's internal raw material structure (lightweight) and external diversification
.
There is no obvious correlation between the raw material prices of various routes, and it is difficult to determine which route is more advantageous
.
Enterprises should choose a reasonable investment direction according to their own conditions and forecasts of future supply and demand of raw materials and price trends
.
There is no obvious correlation between the raw material prices of various routes, and it is difficult to determine which route is more advantageous
.
Enterprises should choose a reasonable investment direction according to their own conditions and forecasts of future supply and demand of raw materials and price trends
.
