The intraday shock of Shanghai rubber weakened, and the pace of destocking was still slow

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract opened at 11925 yuan / ton, the highest price was 11955 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 11820 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 11890 yuan / ton; It fell by 35 yuan / ton, or 0.
29%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1901 contract is 170.
5 yen/kg, the highest price is 171.
4 yen/kg, the lowest price is 164.
6 yen/kg, and the closing price is 168 yen/kg; The trading volume was 4486 lots, and the position volume was 14407 lots
.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation 10000 (-200) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation -(-) yuan/ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk quotation 10300 (-200) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10100/10200 (-200/-100) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 1720 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 496580 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 430 tons, Yunnan decreased by 100 tons, Shandong increased by 1890 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan decreased by 500 tons
.

As of August 16, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell slightly by about 0.
8%.

Although the overall stock of rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone declined, there were slight differences in individual varieties: the stock of styrene-butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the stock of tobacco flake rubber increased
slightly.

The Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract weakened intraday volatility on Thursday and fluctuated
overnight.
From the 60-minute candlestick chart, the K-line returned to above the 5-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green bar continued; On the daily chart, the K-line fell back below the moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red bar turned green
.
Volume increased, positions declined, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 73008 (+721), short 102446 (-97), net short 29438 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

In January and June, US imports of natural rubber fell to 87,000 tons year-on-year, of which 11.
6% year-on-year and 15.
0%
month-on-month.

This month, standard rubber and latex showed a double decrease, and tobacco film glue showed a double increase
.
Standard rubber and latex decreased by 13.
4% and 17.
6% year-on-year, respectively, and decreased by 17.
4% and 21.
6%
month-on-month, respectively.
Tobacco film gum increased by 3.
7% year-on-year and 14.
0%
month-on-month.
In the first half of the year, the United States imported a total of 518,000 tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 6.
4%.

Among them, standard rubber and tobacco tablets increased by 9.
5% and 5.
2% respectively, while latex decreased by 30.
1%.

2.
China's National Development and Reform Commission said on Wednesday that from the current data, especially from January to July, the impact of Sino-US economic and trade frictions on China's economy is still very limited; China has the conditions and sufficient capacity to cope with the current escalation of trade disputes and the impact of trade frictions, and ensure the successful completion
of the economic and social development goals and tasks set at the beginning of the year.

As of the close of the night trading 09-01 spread narrowed to 1870 yuan / ton, the plate premium mixed spot 1490-1590 yuan / ton
.
As of August 16, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell slightly by about 0.
8%.

Recently, due to the fluctuation of the US dollar and RMB exchange rates, there are certain exchange risks
in imports and exports.
The continuous inversion of internal and external disks has a certain inhibitory effect on imports, and the import market is relatively cautious
.
We expect that from late August, with the arrival of the domestic downstream demand season, imports may rise again, exchange inventories will continue to accumulate, and high inventories will still be a constraint
to the rise in Shanghai rubber prices.
The pace of destocking in the domestic market is still slow, and it is expected that Shanghai rubber will be dominated by a weak trend, and it will be sorted out intraday or volatile
.