Traceability is a scientific issue, and science and facts should be respected
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On the other hand, the evolutionary analysis of the viral genome shows that the emergence of the new coronavirus is most likely to be between October and December 2019; in addition, the analysis of the early sequence of the new coronavirus also shows that there are two main types of sequences
Finally, it needs to be pointed out that the initial outbreak of the epidemic may not be its origin
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Pangolins are very likely to be an intermediate host, because two new coronavirus-like viruses GX/P2V/2017 and GD/1/2019 that have similarities to the new coronavirus at 85.
In summary, the true animal reservoir of the new coronavirus has not yet been determined, and several potential animal hosts are distributed globally.
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(1) Pre-pandemic influenza-like cases may have new coronary patients
From October 1, 2019 to April 15, 2020, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention FluSurv-NET (Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network) site reported 19,845 laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalizations, of which 56 (0.
(2) The earliest case in the United States may be one month earlier than the first reported case in the country
On November 30, 2020, researchers from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a study in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.
(3) The time of new crown infection in many states is earlier than the time of initial report of cases
On June 15, 2021, a new study jointly completed by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and other teams was published in the international authoritative journal "Clinical Infectious Diseases"
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(1) The first patient in France is not a relevant imported case in China
On April 29, 2020, Fabiana Gambaro and others at the Pasteur Institute in France published a study on the preprint platform "Bio Preprint" (bioRxiv), which analyzed 97 copies collected between January 24 and March 24 The gene sequence of the French virus samples.
The results show that among the virus samples currently circulating in France, the earliest sample was collected on February 19.
He died on the 25th, followed by a large-scale epidemic in France
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The research was officially published on "Eurosurveillance" on July 2, 2020
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(2) The earliest case of the law may be 1 month earlier than the first reported case in China
In May 2020, a study published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents by A Deslandes and others at the XIII University of Paris, France, retrospectively examined two medical institutions in France from December 2, 2019 to January 16, 2020 A sample of 14 patients who received ICU treatment resulted in the discovery of a new coronavirus pneumonia infection
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The patient's most recent travel was to Algeria in August 2019.
He had no history of travel to China and surrounding areas before the onset of illness
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A child of this patient also had flu-like symptoms before he developed the above symptoms
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The results suggest that the emergence of the new coronavirus in France is one month earlier than the first case on January 24, when the first case in the country was previously discovered
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According to a report by French media Franceinfo on May 3, 2020, on December 27, 2019, a patient with suspected pneumonia admitted to a suburban hospital in Paris, France, tested positive for the new coronavirus nucleic acid
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Yves Cohen, head of the emergency department at Avicenne Hospital and Jean-Verdier Hospital, said that recently the hospital conducted a new coronavirus nucleic acid test on a throat swab sample collected at the end of December 2019.
The results Was positive
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The patient is 43 years old and has no history of foreign travel.
It should be that he was infected with the new coronavirus between December 14 and 22, 2019
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On May 7, 2020, the Albert Schweitzer Hospital in Colmar, Hautes-Léger, France, issued an announcement stating that a male patient admitted to the hospital on December 2, 2019 was diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia
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The head of the imaging department of the hospital re-examined a total of 2456 chest radiographs from November 1, 2019 to April 30, 2020.
Among them, there were 15 cases of typical new coronavirus pneumonia between November and December 2019.
Suspected cases of symptoms, the earliest suspected case can be traced back to November 16, 2019
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Dr.
Miche Schmitt, head of the medical imaging department of the hospital, told Franceinfo that the 15 suspected cases were tested for the new coronavirus and confirmed that one of the suspected cases admitted to the hospital on December 2 was a person infected with the new coronavirus
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The male patient is 57 years old and the source of the infection is unknown
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The reporting time of early cases in Italy has been advanced repeatedly
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(1) The earliest Italian case may be 1 month earlier than the first reported case
Italy's Barenty region is one of the first regions in the country where a novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic occurred.
On February 20, 2020, the No.
1 case in Italy's mainland was reported in Lombardy
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A research report published in BioRxiv by D.
Cereda of the University of Bicocca in Italy showed that the virus had spread in many cities and towns in southern Lombardy before the diagnosis of patient No.
1
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By studying the 5830 confirmed cases in Lombardy, the researchers traced forward and constructed a chain of transmission
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The results showed that the new coronavirus began to appear in Lombardy as early as January 1, 2020
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(2) It is further speculated that the earliest case in Italy may be 3 months earlier than the first reported case
On November 11, 2020, the Milan National Cancer Institute published a study in the Journal of Oncology.
Researchers participated in a study of 959 healthy volunteers recruited between September 2019 and March 2020.
The blood samples tested for lung cancer were tested for the new coronavirus serum.
The results showed that 111 of the 959 samples were positive, and 6 of the 111 positive samples were positive for the new coronavirus neutralizing antibody, 4 of which were in October 2019.
Collected at the beginning of the month
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On December 8, 2020, a research team from the University of Milan published a study in "Emerging Infectious Diseases", analyzing 39 oropharyngeal swab samples from September 2019 to February 2020, one of which was The new coronavirus ribonucleic acid was detected, and this positive sample came from a 4-year-old boy
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He lives near Milan, Italy, and has no history of overseas travel before
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The case shows that the boy started to show symptoms such as cough and rhinitis on November 21, 2019
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On January 7, 2021, the results of a study published in the British Journal of Dermatology showed that an international research team led by the University of Milan, Italy obtained a biopsy sample from a young female patient with skin disease in Italy on November 10, 2019 In, the gene sequence of the new coronavirus was discovered
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The patient presented with only red patches of skin and slight sore throat at the presentation in November 2019
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A serological test in June 2020 found that there were antibodies to the new coronavirus in his blood
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(3) The latest report suggests that the earliest case in Italy may be 6 months earlier than the first reported case
On August 6, 2021, a study led by the University of Milan, Italy was published online on the "Lancet" preprint website (SSNR)
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The study investigated the infection of the new coronavirus on 435 samples of 156 cases preserved after the end of the summer of 2019, including nucleic acid testing and antibody testing
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The first sample that tested positive for the new coronavirus was a urine sample collected on September 12, 2019.
The sample came from an 8-month-old baby whose serum antibody was also positive
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This evidence shows that the new crown has spread in Lombardy in the late summer of 2019
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It is worth paying attention to the detection of new coronavirus gene fragments in wastewater, which may reflect the situation of the epidemic from the side
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It is worth paying attention to the detection of new coronavirus gene fragments in wastewater, which may reflect the situation of the epidemic from the side Nucleic acids of the new coronavirus have been detected in early wastewater samples in many countries
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For example, in June 2020, Japanese scholars evaluated the presence of new coronavirus genes in wastewater and river water in Yamanashi Prefecture, Japan, and discovered the new coronavirus genes in the wastewater
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Starting in mid-June 2020, French scholars have detected an increase in the number of new coronaviruses at the inflow point of the main wastewater treatment plant in Montpellier, France, and the number of new cases of new coronavirus patients in the region began to increase a few weeks later
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Interestingly, a study released by the Italian Higher Institute of Health on June 18, 2020 showed that the new coronavirus nucleic acid was detected in the wastewater samples of the two cities of northern Italy, Milan and Turin in December 2019
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The University of Barcelona in Spain issued an announcement on June 26, 2020, stating that a research team led by the school had detected the new coronavirus in a Barcelona wastewater sample collected in March 2019, and the level of the virus was very low
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This indicates that similar situations may have occurred in other parts of the world, but many cases may have been concealed because they were misdiagnosed as influenza
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The new crown epidemic is a disaster facing all mankind.
Countries in the world should join hands to find the source of the new crown virus and provide an important reference for preventing the next possible epidemic
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(The authors are respectively the researcher of the State Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microorganism Biosafety; the assistant researcher of the Chinese Institute of Science and Technology Information)
Focus on the new crown pneumonia epidemic
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