The influence of the increase of new corn storage in Jilin Province on corn market

Introduction: it is understood that in 2001 / 02, the number of newly produced corn purchased by the state-owned grain Department of Jilin province increased significantly compared with the same period of last year According to the statistics of the grain Department of Jilin Province, by the first ten days of January, the number of newly purchased corn in Jilin province had reached 9.97 million tons, an increase of 3.225 million tons compared with the same period of last year, with an increase of 47.8% Among them, 7.25 million tons of newly produced corn were purchased, an increase of 3.405 million tons over the same period of last year, with an increase rate of 46.9%; while the number of rice and soybean purchases decreased compared with the same period of last year, with a decrease rate of 7.8% and 18.3% respectively First, the reasons for the increase in the number of new corn in storage in Jilin Province in 2001 / 02 are as follows: first, this year, the state expanded the scale of national grain storage, increased the capacity of new grain depots, and last summer, the grain Department of Jilin province increased the sales of corn, increased the number of sales, and increased the tasks of new corn storage and replenishment this year; Second, the national grain reserve index was issued later this year As the corn production in Jilin Province has been reduced for two consecutive years, although the corn production increased in 2001, the increase was not large The state-owned grain department was worried that it could not complete the task of storage and collection, so it was more active in the early stage of acquisition Third, in addition to Jilin Province, the progress of corn purchase by state-owned grain storage and collection departments in Northeast China this year generally lags behind that of the same period last year Jilin Agricultural Development Bank loan is guaranteed, and a certain amount of corn is shipped to Jilin in other production areas Fourth, after the new corn was put into operation, farmers in the early stage were reluctant to sell because of the high cost of drought resistance However, as the price of corn continued to fall, the mentality of reluctant to sell changed, and they took the initiative to sell the surplus grain in their hands 2 Look at the market through figures Although the Northeast production area suffered drought in 2001, the corn output still increased compared with last year It is estimated that the corn output of three provinces and one area in the Northeast will reach 33.14 million tons in 2001 According to the approximate estimation of the commodity rate of about 65%, the new commodity volume of corn in the Northeast production area this year is about 21.54 million tons, but by the early January, Jilin Province has acquired 7.25 million tons of corn It is estimated that there will be several grain sales peaks around the Spring Festival in 2002, spring ploughing for seed preparation and corn seedling setting Therefore, in 2002, the corn storage volume of state-owned grain sector in Jilin Province will increase In addition to the purchase volume of non-state-owned grain sector, it is conservatively estimated that the purchase volume of new corn in Jilin Province this year will also be more than 9 million tons, accounting for 42% of the new corn commodity volume of three northeast provinces and one area About It shows that the commodity volume of new maize production in Northeast China has changed obviously in regional distribution this year, and Jilin Province will bear huge inventory pressure In the short term, due to the influence of large amount of ordering and reserve corn purchase, the corn purchase price in Jilin province increased slightly at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, which also boosted the corn purchase price in surrounding provinces At present, more than half of the state-owned grain departments in Jilin Province purchase and reserve corn, and the enthusiasm of the grain departments will decline, which will lead to the decrease of corn purchase quantity and purchase price Therefore, it is expected that before the Spring Festival (mid February), the purchase price of corn in the Northeast production area will show a stable and falling situation Throughout the year, in the context of deepening grain reform and accession to the WTO, it is estimated that the following important factors will have an important impact on the market trend of corn in 2001 / 02 The first is the corn reserve, rotation and sales and other policies of the state-owned grain sector in Jilin Province in 2002 Secondly, the quantity and opportunity of corn export in Jilin Province in 2002 In the first half of 2001, a large number of corn exports in Jilin Province pulled up the rising market in spring and summer This year, China's corn export policy may change, and Jilin province's corn exports are facing great pressure On January 14, Jilin foreign trade working conference had a clear understanding of corn export situation, and decided to take various measures to promote corn export Thirdly, the quantity of corn sold outside Jilin Province At present, corn prices in Northeast China and North China Huang Huai Region are hanging upside down The industry is generally concerned about the "new northeast phenomenon" Whether the chain between Northeast China and South China can be connected will have an impact on the integration of the national corn market Finally, the transformation and digestion of corn in Jilin Province this year In November 2001, Jilin provincial government issued a notice on accelerating the development of corn industrialization and deep processing industry in Jilin Province, emphasizing the development goals, ideas and development strategies; at the same time, the pilot production of several fuel alcohol production enterprises will improve the production capacity of corn deep processing in Jilin Province.