The influence of policy factors on domestic corn market

Introduction: according to the analysis of the author, the policy factors have a significant impact on the development of the later corn market 1 Affect the later planting of corn It can be seen from the situation of corn planting in recent years that the direction of corn planting has changed under the guidance of policies In the past two years, the Chinese government has been advocating the cultivation of high-yield and high-efficiency food crops Soybean crops have become the first choice because of their high planting efficiency "Corn soybean" rotation plan has been issued accordingly The policy guidance has affected the corn planting area and the yield Due to the continuous harvest of corn in the past few years and the poor market, the domestic corn supply is still greater than the demand in the short term Considering the demand changes in various aspects in the long term, the domestic corn supply is relatively tight, so the country will not reduce the planting area of corn significantly in the short term However, for corn with low output rate and high planting cost, the range of reducing planting area may be very large in the future Therefore, the planting situation of corn in the future will be determined according to national policies 2 Affecting the corn trade Export trade has long been a domestic government action The sharp increase of corn export in 2001 is closely related to the active organization of export by the state After China's accession to the WTO, the government will still look for opportunities to organize exports when it actively completes import quotas and has sufficient domestic inventory Therefore, the policy factors will play a decisive role in the operation of domestic corn trade in the later period 3 Influence the development direction of grain circulation pattern In order to mitigate the impact of China's accession to the WTO on the grain market, the Chinese government will organize grain production and grain management according to the market demand at home and abroad, and establish a unified, open, competitive, orderly and international grain market system Due to the unreasonable planting structure of China's original grain, the circulation of corn has always maintained the way of "transporting grain from the north to the South", and the distribution of corn production is extremely inappropriate from the perspective of time and space Therefore, the focus of grain production and supply has gradually shifted to the central and northern regions In the future, the grain produced in the central and northern regions will mainly solve the grain gap in the western region, while the grain produced in the southeast coastal regions will The demand for food will turn to the international market in part, the policy orientation will become clear, the unreasonable phenomenon in the original grain circulation channels will be gradually changed, and the impact of China's accession to the WTO on the domestic corn market will be reduced Therefore, the policy orientation will become the most powerful backing for China's accession to the WTO 4 Affect the business psychology In 2001, corn in North China, Huanghuai and other places withdrew from the protection price range, and the three northeastern provinces continued to implement the protection price policy, but corn below the third grade was not within the protection range, the protection range and protection level were reduced, and the original supporting role for corn price was weakening With the decrease of the price, the purchasing enthusiasm of the storage enterprises is also decreasing, the purchasing speed of the purchasers is also slow, and the enthusiasm of the farmers to sell grain is also decreasing due to the falling of the price The new measures of the protection policy affect the psychological changes of the operators in the three links of corn production, purchase and sale, and the change of the purchase policy may bring some negative effects on the market in the short term Based on the analysis of the above factors, the change of planting area, the mode of grain circulation, the pattern of import and export trade, the proportion of market supply and demand are all closely related to the national policies The influencing factors of the policies cover all aspects of the corn market To grasp the future trend of the corn market, we should not only stay in the surface phenomenon of the market, but also enter the corn market from the perspective of policies Line drill down.