The influence of policy factors on corn market

Introduction: in 2002, the reform of China's grain circulation system accelerated significantly, and grain related policies were successively issued The impact of policy factors on the grain market is more prominent The overall planning of China's grain market pattern is carried out from a macro perspective, thus affecting the price trend of China's grain market in the first half of the year Next, the author analyzes the later trend of corn from the impact of grain related policies issued in the first half of 2002 on the corn market: first, the impact of railway freight adjustment on the corn market The State Planning Commission issued an urgent notice on March 26, 2002, and the railway construction fund levied by the railway transportation of rice, rice, wheat, flour, corn, soybeans, etc will be exempted in full from the levy since April 1 This policy has been introduced for more than two months, and its positive impact on the market has been fully reflected 1 It is beneficial for the Northeast grain management enterprises to reduce the grain transportation cost The railway construction fund exempted by the state accounts for 30-40% of the total transportation cost, so the full reduction of railway construction fund reduces the transportation cost of corn from the production area to the sales area by railway by about 40% on average For example: the freight from Changchun to Guangzhou south is 248.87 yuan / ton before adjustment, 191.8 yuan / ton after adjustment (relevant data is provided by Changchun railway Shengyuan Industry Co., Ltd.); the freight from Changchun to Fuzhou east is 209.82 yuan / ton before adjustment, 167.46 yuan / ton after adjustment; the freight from Changchun to Shanghai Songjiang is 166.08 yuan / ton before adjustment, 90.54 yuan / ton after adjustment, and the freight from Changchun to Dalian Before the cost adjustment, it was 53.45 yuan / ton, after the adjustment, it was 38.71 yuan / ton; after the adjustment, how much the freight decreased depends on the proportion of the original railway construction fund in the freight For example, the railway construction fund was not collected for the Beijing Kowloon Railway, so the freight after the Beijing Kowloon Railway did not decrease 2 It is conducive to protecting the common interests of grain management enterprises and promoting the export of corn in Northeast China Grain management is originally a small profit, but the profit range per ton of corn is very small Through the comparison before and after the freight adjustment, we can see that the difference between the freight from Changchun to Fuzhou east is 42.36 yuan / ton, that is to say, 42.36 yuan / ton can be saved For the seller, if the delivery mode of double package arrival is adopted, the freight of grain per vehicle can be saved by 2541.6 yuan; for the buyer, if the delivery mode of production area vehicle plate is adopted, the procurement cost per vehicle can also be saved by 2541.6 yuan For an enterprise with an annual operating capacity of 100000 tons of corn, the transportation cost that can be saved by the measures of this policy is very considerable 3 It is beneficial to reduce the price difference between domestic corn and international market and improve the competitiveness of China's corn in international market China's corn production cost and transportation cost are relatively high, so it is always in a weak position in the international market competition Without export subsidies, the competitiveness of China's corn with the international market will be greatly weakened According to the data of national grain and oil information center, the FOB price of Meiwan port in the middle of May began to rise along with the rise of corn futures price According to the calculation, the FOB price of Meiwan port in May is about 95.7-95.9 US dollars / ton, and the reference price to China is 1150-1160 yuan / ton, 10 yuan / ton higher than that in the first ten days, while the corn price of Guangzhou Huangpu port is about 1120-1140 yuan / ton 2 The impact of the tax rebate policy for bulk grain export on the corn market On April 1, the State Council approved the implementation of the zero value-added tax rate policy for rice, wheat and corn The export of the above-mentioned goods is exempt from output tax, which fully reflects the state's support for grain export This policy is a substantial good for grain export enterprises It is another powerful measure to deal with the situation of grain market competition after China's accession to the WTO, following the exemption of railway construction fund from the state It aims to reduce the export cost and enhance the competitiveness of China's corn in the international market According to the calculation, by canceling the railway construction fund and export value-added tax rebate, the export cost of corn in China will be reduced by about 200 yuan / ton, equivalent to about 24 US dollars / ton According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China's corn export is progressing smoothly this year, with the export volume increasing month by month From January to April, China exported 2.96 million tons of corn As the main corn producing area, Jilin province's cumulative export volume from January to May is 2.05 million tons, compared with the 4.5 million tons predicted at the beginning of the year, Jilin Province has completed 45.78% of the whole country It is reported that according to the export momentum this year, some professional analysts believe that China's corn export this year is expected to reach 6 million tons or 7 million tons, or even more 3 The influence of Chen Liang's competitive sale on the corn market Since this spring, three provinces in Northeast China have held Chen Liang's competitive trade fair successively, with a total of 3.25 million tons of corn traded In April 2002, the average transaction price of corn in Liaoning spring auction fair was 948 yuan / ton; on May 11, the average price of corn in Liaoning Province was 950 yuan / ton; on May 16 and 17, the average price of corn in Jilin Province was 929.5 yuan / ton, close to or similar to the local spot price in Jilin As the time of bidding is just the beginning of the peak season of corn demand, so the selling of such quantity of stale grain did not cause a sharp drop in corn market price The reason why grain companies in the south are willing to pay high prices for old corn also shows that they are optimistic about the corn market in the future The author believes that Chen Liang's competitive trading is a further confirmation of the bottom of corn price In the next five months, there is little room for the northeast corn to go down In the first ten days of June, the spot price of corn in Jilin production area was in the range of 950-980 yuan / ton The closing price of old corn in Dalian port is 1040 yuan / ton At present, the price in the main corn selling areas in South China has increased slightly, from 1060 yuan / ton last week to 1080 yuan / ton in Shanghai; from 1160 yuan / ton in Fuqing market to 1170 yuan / ton; the price of corn in Huanghuai area in North China has also increased by about 20-40 yuan / ton 4 The impact of the issuance of import quotas on the domestic market: on April 5, China issued all non-state-owned low-tariff import quotas In 2002, China promised to import 18.31 million tons of grain and 5.85 million tons of corn alone At the beginning of the issuance of import quotas, there was psychological pressure on grain enterprises in the production and marketing areas Some grain management enterprises in some production areas believe that imported corn may enter the domestic market at any time, and the price of domestic corn may be impacted by "foreign corn"; some grain consumption enterprises in the south are worried about gains and losses, and reduce the number of purchases However, after half a year, no imported corn has entered the Chinese market According to the analysis of this year's import quota distribution, although the total quota is large, the quota quantity obtained by grain consuming enterprises in each province is relatively scattered Therefore, even if "foreign corn" enters the Chinese market in the second half of the year, the quantity will not be too large, and the impact on the Chinese corn market will be weakened 5 The impact of this year's autumn grain purchase policy adjustment on the grain market In April, the Jilin province grain production and circulation working conference decided to make major adjustments to the autumn grain purchase policy First, the grain purchase protection price will be reasonably lowered This year's autumn grain purchase protection price level will be lowered, which will be determined by the normal annual grain cost plus appropriate income Second, it puts forward new requirements for the purchase grade and moisture content of autumn grain The third is to carry out the pilot work of direct subsidies to farmers The acquisition policy issued by Jilin Province is bound to drive other major grain producing provinces to make relevant adjustments Due to the adjustment of autumn grain acquisition policy, the impact on the grain market will be reflected For example, the cost of grain production will be further reduced, the distribution pattern of corn will change, the main body of purchase and sale will be diversified, and the price gap of grain will be narrowed Vi analysis and prediction of corn market in the second half of 2002: after the bottom in December 2001, China's corn market began to rise steadily from January 2001 Thanks to the support of the above policy factors, northeast corn began to rise step by step It is learned from the production area of Jilin that the average price of corn plate in the wholesale market of Jilin grain center from January to May is 900 yuan / ton, 920 yuan / ton, 930 yuan / ton, 940 yuan / ton and 950 yuan / ton respectively Corn prices are expected to continue to climb slowly in the second half of the year In the second half of the year, the following factors contributed to the price of corn: 1 The increase of export is conducive to the rise of corn price According to the April report of the State Grain and oil information center, China's corn output accounts for 18.7% of the world's total corn output, while the export volume only accounts for 5.6% of the world's total corn export As a big agricultural country, China's corn export potential is huge As we all know, China's corn is non genetically modified corn with stable quality By reducing the cost of export transportation and exempting from grain export output tax, the competitiveness of China's corn in the international market is gradually enhanced Now, the use of Chinese corn purchased by some countries is not limited to feed use For example, the Korean Processing Association purchased 50000 tons of Chinese corn for human consumption at a price of 106.28 US dollars per ton Recently, due to the transportation problem and the increase of freight in the United States, the price of corn in the United States has increased, which has affected the corn trade in the United States According to the calculation, the cost price of imported corn arriving at the port of China in May is 1150 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as the price of corn in China However, if the southern grain enterprises use imported corn, there is no profit The weakening of corn competitiveness in the United States is conducive to China's corn gaining more share in the international market 2 The increase of seasonal demand drives up the price of corn Because this is the first year of China's accession to the WTO, influenced by the international market and other relevant factors, the evolution of northeast corn market in the first half of this year is different from previous years The price that is expected to rise in April has been crawling up slowly in the middle and low, and the sales price of corn has always been below the cost line After the weather turns warm, the peak of animal husbandry and animal husbandry production also comes With the increase of seasonal demand, a large number of old corn in Northeast China has been digested smoothly At present, the delivery price of vehicle plate in Jilin production area is about 20 yuan / ton higher than that in May, reaching the average price of 960 yuan / ton The Central Plains corn has been unable to meet the needs of feed production in the sales area The increase of corn purchase in the north will inevitably drive the corn price in the Northeast in the second half of the year up step by step, which will cause the corn price in the sales area to rise at the same time In addition, since June, China's Shaanxi, Chongqing, Hubei, Guizhou and other places have suffered from floods, and some areas have suffered from continuous rain, which has affected the delivery of corn A large area locust disaster has occurred in 14 provinces and cities, such as Shandong and Hebei, which has an impact on the harvest of summer grain, and the reduction of summer grain production will have an impact on the corn market To sum up, the author believes that the corn market in China will rise steadily in the second half of the year Of course, there are many restraining factors to the price rise of corn, such as the influence of the recent implementation of the new agricultural law of the United States on the future international agricultural trade; the influence of foot-and-mouth disease of South Korea on the export quantity of corn in China; the inhibition of low-cost wheat as part of feed on the price of corn; the quantity of imported corn entering the Chinese market in the second half of the year; the auction of stale grain and the rotation of reserve grain in the second half of the year How many and so on Although, due to many variable factors affecting the market changes of corn, the author believes that the trend of corn in the second half of the year is more optimistic (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: