The influence of international market changes on China's corn

Introduction: Since China's accession to the WTO, with the deepening of the reform of China's grain circulation system, China's grain market and the international market are further integrated The price trend of spot and futures in the international corn market is bound to attract the high attention of China's grain market From January to July 2002, the price of corn in the international market was first depressed and then increased, and the market trend was completely opposite to that in the domestic market Below the author analyzes the international market corn market changes on the impact of domestic market prices 8kk1 Corn prices in the international market continue to rise, bringing business opportunities for China's corn export 8kk with the rising price of corn in the international market this year, the export situation of China's corn in the first half of this year is good This year's grain related policies issued by China have positive significance for corn export this year The positive role of national macro-control has a positive effect on China's corn export in the second half of the year From January to June, China's corn exports totaled 3.49 million tons, an increase of 11.13% compared with the export volume of 3.1359 million tons from January to June 2001 China's corn export flows to South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and North Korea Although China's corn export momentum is very good this year, we should also see that China's share of corn in the international market is still small Take Japan as an example, Japan imports more than 15 million tons of corn from the international market every year, while the amount imported from China is very small; China's corn output accounts for 19.8% of the world's corn output, while the export volume only accounts for 8.2% of the world's corn 8kk2, which is conducive to the sales price of corn in the international market and the international market In the second half of this year, the export price of China's corn will increase with the change of the international market The increase of the price and share of China's corn in the international market will also play a supporting role in the stability and rise of the domestic corn price 8kk3 The price fluctuation of international corn market will increase this year After May of this year, the price of corn in Meiwan began to rise slightly, and after June, the rate of rise accelerated significantly Since August, the FOB price of American corn export has continued to rise slightly The FOB price of American Bay corn export is about 105-106 US dollars / ton, 16 US dollars / ton higher than may, 11.4 US dollars / ton higher than June and 4.7 US dollars / ton higher than July Judging from the continuous rise of corn price in Meiwan and the sharp rise of Chicago futures market, the fluctuation of corn price in the international market will be intensified this year, and the competition of corn in the international market will be more intense 8kk4 The possibility of a large amount of corn in the international market entering China this year is gradually narrowing 8kk in the first half of this year, China's corn slowly climbed from the low position, although after six months of growth, but the price gap with imported corn is still large According to the current FOB price of Meiwan port (shipment date in August), the reference price of American corn to China port is at least 1240-1250 yuan / ton, about 10 yuan / ton higher than that in mid July In June, the price of corn in Huangpu port and Shekou port was about 1140 yuan / ton and 1120 yuan / ton respectively The main reason why foreign corn does not enter China is that there is no profit margin In the second half of the year, it is also unlikely that foreign corn will enter China The main reason is that the supply of domestic corn market is increasing and the price is low, while the price of international market is rising International businesses will choose the international market with larger profit margin.