The influence of China's entry into WTO on the production, circulation and price of corn

Introduction: Abstract: after China's accession to the WTO, the production pattern of corn will incline to the northeast, the advantage of corn planting in the Northeast will be strengthened, and the investment in corn production in the South will be reduced moderately; the circulation of corn will form a situation of "going out from the north to the South"; the price of corn will be in line with the international market, and with the increase of imports, the international price will increase, and the domestic price will also increase It will fall back from the current high level 2002 is the first year of China's accession to the WTO After China's accession to the WTO, China will expand the opening-up of domestic agricultural products, reduce tariff rates and eliminate export subsidies China is a big corn exporter, and for a long time, corn exports enjoy export subsidies of 44 US dollars / ton The cancellation of export subsidies will have a great impact on China's corn production and circulation in terms of market prices The specific analysis is as follows: the impact of China's accession to the WTO on corn production First of all, after China's accession to the WTO, the pattern of corn production in China will change, the advantages of corn planting in the Northeast will be strengthened, and the investment in corn production in the South will be moderately reduced First of all, this change is determined by China's long-term policy of "mainly relying on domestic production to meet food demand" Even after China's accession to the WTO, this principle will not change, but can only be strengthened Corn has always been a traditional export product in China, and will try to maintain this advantage after China's accession to the WTO Secondly, it is caused by the difference of planting benefits between the north and the south Because the northeast region has the advantage of planting corn compared with other regions in both production experience and geographical and climatic conditions, especially restricted by geographical and climatic conditions, the benefit of developing other crops in the northeast region is not as good as that of corn except developing corn Thirdly, from the perspective of geographical and climatic conditions, only economic crops such as spring wheat, soybean and vegetable can realize rotation with corn in the northeast From the perspective of market demand and planting benefit, it is not suitable to convert a large area of corn cultivated land to spring wheat, soybean or vegetables, so it is also objectively required to plant corn in the northeast Fourth, according to the relevant provisions of the WTO, the government is allowed to give agricultural production subsidies, such as improving rural water conservancy facilities and improving the quality of farmers In the development of corn production in Northeast China, more convenient conditions like this can not only improve the supply capacity of domestic corn, but also the most effective measures to reduce the impact of imported corn on the domestic market Fifthly, the reduction of corn cultivation in the south is due to the fact that the production level of these corn is lower than that in the northeast After China's accession to the WTO, imported corn can be used, which is more beneficial in terms of comparative benefits The influence of entering WTO on the circulation of corn Before China's accession to the WTO, the amount of corn import was very small Especially in recent years, the import of corn was mainly realized by processing with supplied materials The domestic corn consumption was mainly transported to the southern sales area by the way of land and water transportation in Northeast China, and there was almost no direct import Therefore, the import of corn had little impact on the domestic corn circulation After entering WTO, the pattern of grain transportation from north to South will be affected, even changed fundamentally That is to say, corn in Northeast China will be mainly used in North China, which has a short transportation distance, as well as exported to Japan and South Korea, and less transported to the south Before China's accession to the WTO, more imported corn will be used in the southern areas where northeast corn is widely used After China's accession to the WTO, the Northeast will continue to develop corn production and use the advantages of transportation distance to increase exports to South Korea, Japan and other places The southern region will use more imported corn The circulation of corn will form a situation of "going out from the north to the South" The most significant, direct and profound impact on the domestic corn market after China's accession to the WTO is reflected in the price, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects: first, with the increase of the share of imported corn in the domestic market and the deepening of trade liberalization, the domestic corn price will be in line with the international market Secondly, the domestic corn price will fall from the current high level At present, the closing price of medium-sized corn in Huangpu port of Guangdong Province is about 1130-1140 yuan / ton In March 2002, the price of corn contract in Chicago futures market was about 774 (94.23 US dollars / ton) Considering freight, tax and other related factors, the price of shipping to Guangdong was about 1140-1160 yuan Although the amount of corn in the quota is not enough to meet the demand of the southern region, even so, it will make domestic grain storage enterprises reduce the price of exported corn Third, the international market price will rise This is because China will become a big corn importer after entering WTO According to the provisions of bilateral agreements between China and the United States, China will provide 4.5 million tons of import tariff quota for corn in the first year of entering WTO, and increase to 7.2 million tons before 2005 Once China begins to import corn, the price of corn in the international market is bound to rise In fact, in the years when China imported a large amount of corn, the international price rose with China's import To sum up, China's corn industry will have to face eight challenges after China's accession to the WTO: globalization of corn economy, liberalization of corn products, standardization of market transactions, collectivization of corn management, informatization of corn management, decentralization of corn storage and transportation (loading, transportation, storage and unloading), integration of corn production and marketing, and intellectualization of operators In the face of these challenges, we should put forward solutions Guided by the change of market demand, we should adjust the planting structure, reduce the planting area of corn, improve the deep processing technology of corn, reduce the cost and follow the industrialized development path With China's accession to the WTO approaching, China's grain authorities and grain enterprises need to take stock of the situation and prepare for it (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: