The influence of American corn production increase on China's corn market

Introduction: in 2002, mainly due to the decline of corn production in the United States in 2002, mainly due to the decline of corn production in the United States, the price of corn in the international market rose Under the favorable international food situation, China actively expanded the export of corn, reducing the pressure of domestic supply At present, it is generally predicted that corn production in the United States will increase in 2003, and the international corn market situation will show new changes What is the future trend of corn market in China? The brief analysis is as follows: GMX I review of production and market situation in 2002 GMX introduced the new agricultural act in May 2002 The bill raised the corn loan rate from $1.89/bushel to $1.98/bushel, which increased the corn planting area of the United States by 2.4% Although the planting area increased, the drought in summer seriously affected the corn production in 2002 Under the condition that the drought has a great impact on the corn yield in the United States, the market generally predicts that the total corn yield in the United States will decline as a result, which leads to the rising of corn price in the international market since the end of June and continues until the corn harvest in the United States GMX by mid September 2002, although the U.S Department of agriculture lowered its forecast of total corn production to 224.78 million tons in its latest market report, it is generally expected that the U.S Department of agriculture will adjust the level of corn production in 2002 upward in its future monthly report, and the corn price of Chicago Mercantile Exchange will begin to decline After the middle of September 2002, the price of corn futures fell from the high in the last five years Another important reason is that the decline of corn production in the United States does not affect the corn supply capacity of the United States to the international market in 2002 / 03 In September 2002, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that the U.S corn export volume in 2002 / 03 would still be higher than the actual export level in the previous two years, at 51 million tons GMX's total corn production in 2002 was 12.68 million tons less than that of the previous year With the export continuing to maintain a high level, it is expected that the final inventory of corn in 2002 / 03 will drop to 23.6 million tons, down 41% from the previous year American corn exports account for 60% - 70% of Global trade exports, and the decline of its inventory plays an important role in supporting the price of international corn market Although the price of corn in the international market fell in the second half of September, it was still more than 15% higher at the end of the year than at the beginning of the year The high price of corn in GMX international market made China's corn export record in 2002, reaching 11.67 million tons To a certain extent, the increase of export volume has enlivened the corn market in Northeast China and supported the domestic corn price to a large extent GMX II, 2003 / 04 annual corn production forecast in the United States GMX is now a more common forecast is that if the climate is normal during the corn production in the United States in 2003, its output will increase significantly, and the international corn market supply in 2003 / 04 will be effectively improved In February 2003, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that the corn planting area of GMX will increase by 2.16% compared with 2002 and 6.2% compared with 2001; the corn output will increase by 14% from 228.8 million tons in 2002 to 260.9 million tons; the corn export volume is expected to be 50.8 million tons in 2003 / 04; the ending inventory will increase to nearly 30 million tons GMX III prediction of corn price trend in the international market in 2003 GMX predicts that corn supply will be effectively improved in the future There are still no outstanding grain deficient countries and regions in the world that will purchase a large amount of grain Corn price in the international market will not change the current situation of falling from a high level Unless there is another serious natural disaster, there is no possibility of a sharp uptrend similar to that in 2002 Based on the current production forecast and market analysis, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that the domestic corn farm price in 2003 / 04 was $2.20/bushel, 8.3% lower than the previous year Since the second half of 2002, a large number of corn exports from China and feed wheat exports from some non-traditional countries have restricted the sustained and substantial increase of corn prices in the international market At present, the huge corn stock in Northeast China provides a material basis for the expansion of exports in 2003 It is predicted that China's corn export volume will remain at a high level in 2003, and corn prices in the international market will also be affected by China's exports GMX ocean freight is an important factor affecting the CIF price of corn The increasingly tense situation in the Gulf has led to the rise of oil prices Higher oil prices will push up the CIF price of corn An overall analysis of the possible changes in ocean freight is conducive to increasing exports and curbing imports GMX 4 In 2003, China's corn market predicted that the price trend of corn in the international market of GMX would affect China's corn export to a large extent China's main corn trading partners are South Korea and Malaysia, which pay more attention to the price of corn than Japan In 2002, the international market price went up, the competitiveness of China's corn increased, and the export to these two countries increased If in the second half of 2003, with the clear production situation and the low price of corn in the international market, the competitiveness of China's corn will be relatively reduced and the export will begin to be affected At present, the domestic corn stock is mainly concentrated in the Northeast production area The increase of corn production in 2002 has made the pressure of corn stock in Northeast continue to increase in recent period Consumption in the domestic market is stable If the export of corn decreased in the second half of 2003 or the fourth quarter, with the harvest of new corn, it will bring new pressure to the northeast region According to GMX monitoring, in late February, due to the concentration of export and domestic market demand, the closing price of corn in Dalian increased, and the ex warehouse price of corn in Northeast China also increased The analysis and prediction Department of the national grain and Oil Information Center predicted that the beginning of the seasonal increase of corn in China this year will be advanced to around the end of March due to the substitution of corn in Northeast China for corn in Guannei in advance; it is expected that the increase of corn price in the first half of the year is expected to be large If the corn export is not affected by the downward price in the international market before the fourth quarter, the upward trend is likely to continue until the listing of corn in Guannei in autumn The seasonal increase of corn price in GMX is not the result of insufficient corn supply, but the problem of regional distribution between corn supply and demand Although the corn stock in Northeast China accounts for 80% of the national corn stock, the grain enterprises and distributors in the South and inside the customs area purchase in Northeast China ahead of time The Northeast China continues to maintain a high export level The two domestic and foreign demands are superposed, resulting in the relatively insufficient supply capacity in the northern port area for a period of time, which drives the price up The relative shortage of supply makes the domestic demand enterprises and dealers obtain the source of goods by raising the price; and the rising price will increase the waiting psychology of the corn distribution enterprises in Northeast China, which will work together with the demand pull to promote the price to go up steadily GMX needs to point out that at present, the overall supply capacity of domestic corn still far exceeds the demand, and there is no possibility that the price will rise substantially due to the lack of total supply There is a great pressure on corn inventory in Northeast China It is expected that the relevant provinces and regions will implement the policy of actively expanding corn sales in 2003 To a large extent, this will have a restraining effect on the upward price of domestic corn ——CMX GMX