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This week, Shanghai aluminum showed a volatile upward trend, and the main 2008 contract closed at 14375 yuan, up 320 yuan
weekly.
Shanghai aluminum rose all the way in the market's "fear of heights" sentiment, aluminum inventories fell rapidly to a low level, soft forced positions continued, which is the main reason
for the rise in aluminum prices.
On Thursday, the average price of the domestic alumina market was 2448 yuan / ton, up 148 yuan / ton from last Thursday, and the alumina rebound speed this week was faster, and it was also close to the previously estimated rebound target of 2500 yuan / ton
.
At present, the alumina market is in a tight balance, and the overall inventory is at a low level
.
Due to the sharp rebound in alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum smelting profits have narrowed, and the current smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is 1800 yuan / ton at plate prices, but it is still at a relatively high level, which will stimulate electrolytic aluminum production capacity into production
.
According to Baichuan information statistics, in May and June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting capacity increased by a total of 337,000 tons, and about 1.
311 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is planned to resume production
this year.
Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Technical Guidelines for the Formulation of Emergency Emission Reduction Measures for Key Industries in Heavily Polluted Weather (2020 Revised Edition)", and the recycled copper, aluminum, lead and zinc industries are the first key industries
in China to be included in the performance classification of emergency emission reduction of heavily polluted weather.
Because it is the first time it is listed, it is likely to have a certain impact
on the recycled aluminum industry.
The total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum on Thursday was 654,000 tons, down 02,000 tons from last Thursday, and the inventory continued to decline and has now reached a low level
.
While the downward trend in inventories has slowed down significantly, an inflection point for inventories has yet to appear
.
If the inventory is at a low level, then the soft position will be carried out with a high probability, and investors should pay close attention to the changes
in the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum.
Alumina prices have rebounded sharply this week, close to the rebound target
.
The profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting has shrunk slightly due to the rebound of alumina prices, but the overall is still at a high level, and the new production capacity is likely to continue
.
Electrolytic aluminum social stocks are still falling this week, and although the trend slows down further, the inflection point has never appeared
.
It is expected that aluminum prices will show a trend of high volatility
.
