The impact of the implementation of the transgenic regulation on December 20

Introduction: in 2002-03, China's actual crushing capacity was about 20 million tons, and its Chinese soybean production was about 8 million tons for oil extraction, while the rest was for consumption Thus, the relevant Chinese authorities calculated that the import volume in 2002-03 was 12 million tons The average monthly consumption is 1.67 million tons (which may be more than that in fact), and it is 10 million tons in half a year Up to now, the largest estimate of China's import to the United States is 2.5 million tons Due to the fact that the actual price of old South American beans to China is higher than that of new American beans, the current purchase volume in China is not large It is assumed that the current purchase volume in the United States plus domestic beans is almost equal Therefore, in the next six months, China's beans are still relatively tense Uqe is unable to arrive in China before December 20 due to the South American new beans At present, only the American new beans and South American old beans can be purchased by China on December 20 According to the prediction of the U.S Department of agriculture, the average farm price in 2002-03 is 560 cents, so the price of CBOT arriving at the port is about 2450 yuan / ton If it remains 560 in the next two months The average price of US cents, then, the average price of China's domestic beans remains 2200 (producing area) with considerable competitiveness, at least in the north of the Yangtze River and the Central Plains According to the relevant provisions of the GM regulations, uqe needs to apply for 30 days after the implementation of the regulations, more than 30 days from the United States to China, and about 50 days from South America, which actually results in a two-and-a-half to three-month cut-off period in China As for uqe, we can see that if it is strictly implemented, the listing of China's new beans is likely to be stable around 2200 after the high opening and low opening (this is based on the current consideration of CBOT 560 cents) similarly, uqe should also consider the restrictions on soybean oil import during this period Therefore, if 1 China implements the regulations as scheduled and no longer postpones the Interim Regulations; 2 CBOT's average price can stabilize at 560 cents before the first ten days of November, it is likely that China's soybean prices will remain tight and firm in the future In fact, if the cost of imported beans is 2450 yuan / ton, the price of 2200 in the northeast of North China may be more popular than that of imported beans If this pattern is formed around uqe, if the goods arriving at the port before December 20 are less than 3 million tons, then the current price of 2300 yuan / ton in Dalian warehouse receipt is unrealistic, and a drop of 2200 yuan is likely to produce the situation in August this year, and spot merchants enter the market to purchase Of course, it's just a hypothesis, but this year's GM regulations and the strength of meipan have impressed many people.