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The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released the "World Energy Outlook 2022" report that the total global demand for fossil fuels is expected to peak by the mid-2020s, after which it will begin to decline
gradually.
However, the IEA notes that even if demand for fossil fuels peaks, the world is still far from
meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.
According to the IEA, the report presents three scenarios
: current policies, countries' implementation of commitments related to the Paris Agreement and global net zero emissions by 2050.
The IEA stresses that global demand for fossil fuels is likely to peak
in the near future, even under current policy scenarios.
The IEA believes that although some countries are currently reactivating coal-fired power plants due to tight energy supplies, the growth in coal demand is temporary and will still decline
in the next few years.
Natural gas demand will peak
before 2030.
In addition, with the spread of electric vehicles, oil demand will also peak by the mid-30s and gradually decrease
by the middle of the century.
In addition, the IEA pointed out that the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is prompting countries to diversify energy purchases and expand the development and use
of renewable energy.
The U.
S.
Congress recently passed the Inflation Reduction Act, and the European Union developed an energy plan called "RepowerEU" to end its dependence
on Russian energy as soon as possible.
Japan plans to roll out 150 trillion yen of green transition initiatives in the public and private sectors over 10 years, and developing countries are also accelerating the transition
from fossil fuels to zero-emission energy sources.
However, the IEA also pointed out that from the perspective of preventing global warming, the current process is still insufficient
.
Based on current trends, total global energy supply will continue to increase, increasing by less than 20% by 2050 compared to 2021
.
Although the proportion of fossil fuels is gradually declining, it will still account for 60%
by 2050.
According to this projection, compared with before the industrial revolution, the global temperature increase will still reach 2.
5°C by the end of this century, and the Paris Agreement requires that the temperature increase be limited to 2°C, preferably within 1.
5°C
.
The IEA believes that in order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to reduce the total energy demand
.
In the 2050 net-zero global CO2 emissions scenario, energy supply in 2050 needs to be 15% less than in 2021, and 70% of this supply will be renewable
.
According to existing national energy policies, global investment in clean energy will need to reach $2 trillion per year by 2030, an increase of more than
50% over current levels.
Achieving the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.
5°C would require an annual investment of more than US$4 trillion
.
The supply of renewable energy will more than double by 2030 and nuclear energy will need to increase by 40%.