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In August, aluminum prices hit new highs under the mixture of favorable factors, and the margin of aluminum supply and demand in the off-season was tightened, and the marginal reduction of supply caused by production restrictions became the main logic
.
The aggravation of supply-side restrictions has kept aluminum prices high, and the subsequent situation of limiting the scale of production and weakening slightly
.
The flood disaster in Henan and the epidemic control in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have significantly hindered production and transportation, and many places such as Yunnan, Guangxi and Inner Mongolia have increased power rationing, and most enterprises are facing serious raw material shortages
.
At present, it seems that there are signs of relaxation of power rationing in Henan and Guangxi, and the pressure of dual control in Yunnan hydropower and Inner Mongolia is difficult to ease in the short term; On the 26th, Changji Prefecture, Xinjiang, issued documents for the excess production of five local electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the total annual production capacity of many places is about 2.
45 million tons
.
On the demand side, this year's off-season consumption far exceeded market expectations, and the cyclical performance of the traditional off-season was not significant
.
Under the blessing of carbon neutrality and new energy dual-material concepts, the market continues to be filled with a favorable atmosphere about aluminum consumption, and the operating rate of most enterprises shows a certain rigidity, especially in the aluminum profile and aluminum plate and foil part
.
In late August, after Shanghai aluminum and spot market prices both updated a 13-year high, the cost pressure of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased, and consumption was obviously restrained, especially the current aluminum alloy enterprises are facing the cost pressure of rising primary aluminum and silicon prices, and processing fees are difficult to improve, and profits shrink significantly
.
In terms of inventory, this year's inventory continues to be at a low water level and the inflection point of accumulation has not been seen, giving strong support
to the off-season cycle of aluminum prices.
This month's overall inventory destocked 05,000 tons, the current inventory level is 753,000 tons, in the past two weeks there has been a small accumulation of the situation, due to the early logistics blockage Gongyi area has a concentrated arrival situation, Wuxi, South China Sea inventory continued to decline, the current overall consumption is still resilient, can not determine the inventory inflection point has appeared, need to pay attention to the subsequent changes
of the social treasury.
The recently announced third batch of national storage scale is 70,000 tons, lower than the previous 90,000 tons, also lower than the latest announced production limit scale in Xinjiang (involving an annualized production capacity of about 350,000 tons, output of about 130,000 tons), it is expected that this dumping failed to alleviate the tight supply pressure as expected by the market, and according to the past situation, it will rekindle market confidence in the short term and become a major booster of aluminum prices
.
Coupled with the approaching cycle of gold nine silver ten, aluminum prices may continue to hit new highs
with a strong shock trend.
