The global supply and demand are tightly balanced, and we are firmly optimistic that the current round of titanium industry will continue-the 20-year retaliation of overseas leaders and the 21-year outlook of the industry

Our review of the operations of overseas titanium dioxide companies in 2020 shows that the overseas titanium dioxide market continues its recovery trend in Q3-Q4, and the strong demand side continues into 2021.
Our review of the operations of overseas titanium dioxide companies in 2020 shows that the overseas titanium dioxide market continues its recovery trend in Q3-Q4, and the strong demand side continues into 2021.
After experiencing the sluggish market in Q2, the sales of the four major overseas titanium dioxide faucets in Q3-Q4 increased quarter by quarter, accompanied by the gradual rise in prices and gross profit margins.
Based on current sales and inventory conditions, overseas leaders have made relatively optimistic forecasts of market demand in 2021.
We believe that in the current round of titanium dioxide market, overseas leaders will be more willing to raise prices due to two consecutive years of sluggish profits.
Entering 2021, overseas companies have actively raised prices two to three times, with a cumulative rate of more than US$300/ton, which confirms our judgment; at the same time, the increase in overseas prices has also opened up room for price increases in the domestic market.
We are firmly optimistic about the upward trend of the titanium industry chain, and the global supply and demand will be tightly balanced in 2021.
We are firmly optimistic about the upward trend of the titanium industry chain, and the global supply and demand will be tightly balanced in 2021.
On the supply side, effective overseas production capacity will shrink slightly in 2021, and China’s supply growth will be limited, and global production capacity will slightly increase to 8.
46 million tons; on the demand side, in the context of the gradual recovery of major global economies, the domestic real estate completion demand growth and U.
S.
real estate are superimposed The cycle is up, and the total demand for titanium dioxide is expected to increase significantly on the basis of 2020.
Neutral predicts that the total demand in 2021 will be 7.
1 million tons, an increase of 7.
6% from 2020.
In 2021, the world will enter a tight balance between supply and demand, and the industry's average operating rate will exceed 80%.
There is a gap in the supply of titanium ore, and the raw material side will continue to be strong in 2021, supporting the boom market of titanium dioxide.
There is a gap in the supply of titanium ore, and the raw material side will continue to be strong in 2021, supporting the boom market of titanium dioxide.
 

  

  We mentioned many times in the previous series of reports that 2018-2023 is the upward cycle of global titanium ore.
Titanium ore has played an important supporting role in this round of titanium dioxide business cycle.
In 2020, my country's titanium concentrate production will be 5.
45 million tons and imports will be 3.
01 million tons.
There is still a gap corresponding to 8.
58 million tons of domestic demand, and the domestic titanium concentrate inventory will continue to digest.
Due to the limited room for domestic production growth, under the demand environment in 2021, the titanium ore gap will be further highlighted.
The current price has risen to 2300-2400 yuan/ton, and the raw material end price will remain strong this year.


We have calculated the domestic supply and demand balance sheet for 2021-2023, and the average operating rate of the domestic industry in 2021 will reach 94%, exceeding the high level in 2017.
 We have calculated the domestic supply and demand balance sheet for 2021-2023, and the average operating rate of the domestic industry in 2021 will reach 94%, exceeding the high level in 2017.
In 2021, the effective domestic production capacity is 4.
08 million tons, and the predicted apparent consumption is 2.
57 million tons.
On the basis of 1.
21 million tons of export volume in 2020, due to the supply gap caused by overseas demand, the export volume is expected to reach 140-150 in 2021.
10,000 tons, the strong export will become a catalyst for this round of domestic market.
In 2021, the domestic production of titanium dioxide will reach 3.
85 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will exceed the high level of the previous cycle.
The current domestic market price of titanium dioxide is about 19,000 yuan/ton.
After the latest round of price adjustments, corporate quotations have basically reached more than 20,000 yuan/ton.
We believe that the intensity and sustainability of this round of titanium dioxide business cycle will be better than 2017.
We are firmly optimistic about the height and continuity of this round of titanium dioxide business cycle, and related listed companies are expected to benefit; at the same time, from a longer-term perspective, we are optimistic about industry leaders making breakthroughs in chlorination technology and gaining greater market share in the high-end market.
The share of the chlorination process has opened up a broad market space.
We are firmly optimistic about the height and continuity of this round of titanium dioxide business cycle, and related listed companies are expected to benefit; at the same time, from a longer-term perspective, we are optimistic about industry leaders making breakthroughs in chlorination technology and gaining greater market share in the high-end market.
The share of the chlorination process has opened up a broad market space.
Continue to focus on recommending Lomon Baili, and the rest focus on China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide, Kuncai Technology, Anada, Lubei Chemical, Huiyun Titanium, etc.
risk warning: 

  

 Risk warning: The demand for titanium dioxide is not as expected; the domestic competition landscape is deteriorating; the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.