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Among them, the rapeseed market in Europe and Canada , which are closely related to vegetable oils , is trending strong and is at a historical high since the 1980s.
This is mainly due to the soaring global vegetable oil market, palm oil hitting a record high, and US crude oil futures hit a seven-year high under the background of the global energy crisis ; rapeseed supply in Canada and Europe is at the lowest level in history .
Canadian canola prices have risen by as much as 47% so far this year .
In contrast, Chicago soybean futures have taken back all the gains in the first quarter of this year and returned to the level of December last year.
This is mainly because the US soybeans are facing seasonal harvest pressure.
Moreover, the prospects for the production of new soybeans in South America are bright, which puts pressure on prices .
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean futures fell 3.
5 cents or 0.
3% from a week ago to close at 1243 cents per cat
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was 13.
215 US dollars per pu (485.
6 US dollars per ton), down 2.
5 cents or 0.
19% from a week ago
.
The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at approximately 667.
50 Euros/ton, an increase of 23.
25 Euros or 3.
6% from a week ago
.
The November rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose approximately 23.
8 Canadian dollars or 2.
6% from a week ago to close at 926.
90 Canadian dollars/ton; on Thursday, the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture provided a FOB spot price of 542 US dollars (including 33% export tax), up by US$1 or 0.
2% from a week ago
.
The November settlement price of soybeans on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,186 yuan/ton, an increase of 248 yuan or 4.
2% from the pre-holiday period
.
5 cents or 0.
3% from a week ago to close at 1243 cents per cat
.
The average spot price of Meiwan No.
1 yellow soybeans was 13.
215 US dollars per pu (485.
6 US dollars per ton), down 2.
5 cents or 0.
19% from a week ago
.
The Euronext exchange's November 2021 rapeseed futures closed at approximately 667.
50 Euros/ton, an increase of 23.
25 Euros or 3.
6% from a week ago
.
The November rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose approximately 23.
8 Canadian dollars or 2.
6% from a week ago to close at 926.
90 Canadian dollars/ton; on Thursday, the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture provided a FOB spot price of 542 US dollars (including 33% export tax), up by US$1 or 0.
2% from a week ago
.
The November settlement price of soybeans on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,186 yuan/ton, an increase of 248 yuan or 4.
2% from the pre-holiday period
.
International crude oil futures rose this week, as global energy supply and demand are tight, and high natural gas prices may prompt large power users to switch to crude oil, pushing U.
S.
crude oil prices to a seven-year high
.
On Friday, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) November contract closed at 79.
35 yuan per barrel, the highest closing price since October 31, 2014, an increase of 4.
6 from a week ago %, also rose for seven consecutive weeks
.
The global benchmark December Brent crude oil futures closed at US$92.
39 per barrel, up 3.
9% from a week ago, and also rising for four consecutive weeks
.
S.
crude oil prices to a seven-year high
.
On Friday, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) November contract closed at 79.
35 yuan per barrel, the highest closing price since October 31, 2014, an increase of 4.
6 from a week ago %, also rose for seven consecutive weeks
.
The global benchmark December Brent crude oil futures closed at US$92.
39 per barrel, up 3.
9% from a week ago, and also rising for four consecutive weeks
.
On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 94.
10 points, up 0.
1% from a week ago
.
10 points, up 0.
1% from a week ago
.
The international energy market situation influences the price trend of vegetable oil
This week, the oilseed market showed a wide range of oscillations, supported by the surge in the international vegetable oil market, including US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil
.
International crude oil futures have risen sharply, driving the vegetable oil market such as soybean oil and palm oil, because this makes these vegetable oils more attractive to the biofuel industry and helps boost demand prospects
.
The price of vegetable oil has risen sharply, far exceeding the increase in the oilseed market, which will improve soybean crush profits
.
.
International crude oil futures have risen sharply, driving the vegetable oil market such as soybean oil and palm oil, because this makes these vegetable oils more attractive to the biofuel industry and helps boost demand prospects
.
The price of vegetable oil has risen sharply, far exceeding the increase in the oilseed market, which will improve soybean crush profits
.
However, on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the country is ready to help stabilize the energy crisis, increase the supply of natural gas to Europe, and increase crude oil production, which may lead to a temporary correction of oil price increases
.
.
Rapeseed prices continue to soar as inventories hit historical lows
Canadian rapeseed prices have continued to rise in the past week, approaching the all-time high set in mid-August.
The vegetable oil market has soared because of the tight supply of rapeseed
.
From the perspective of supply and demand, as Canada's rapeseed crush in 2020/21 set a record and exports also hit the third highest point in history, the inventory was reduced to 1.
8 million tons
.
By the year of 2021/22, the dry weather resulted in a 39% year-on-year decrease in rapeseed yield, which was the lowest point in 18 years
.
Production has also fallen to a 13-year low
.
Rapeseed exports are expected to decrease by 38% year-on-year; crushing volume is expected to decrease by 28%; rapeseed ending stocks and reduced to 500,000 tons, which is a record low.
For comparison, the previous record of the lowest inventory was 590,000 in 2012/13 Tons
.
The inventory usage ratio will also be reduced to 4%, which is lower than the already low 8% of the previous year
.
The vegetable oil market has soared because of the tight supply of rapeseed
.
From the perspective of supply and demand, as Canada's rapeseed crush in 2020/21 set a record and exports also hit the third highest point in history, the inventory was reduced to 1.
8 million tons
.
By the year of 2021/22, the dry weather resulted in a 39% year-on-year decrease in rapeseed yield, which was the lowest point in 18 years
.
Production has also fallen to a 13-year low
.
Rapeseed exports are expected to decrease by 38% year-on-year; crushing volume is expected to decrease by 28%; rapeseed ending stocks and reduced to 500,000 tons, which is a record low.
For comparison, the previous record of the lowest inventory was 590,000 in 2012/13 Tons
.
The inventory usage ratio will also be reduced to 4%, which is lower than the already low 8% of the previous year
.
Canadian government data show that in August 2021, Canadian rapeseed crush was only 661,968 tons, a decrease of 20% from the previous month and the lowest level in two and a half years
.
Data from the Canadian Grain Council shows that Canadian canola exports in the first eight weeks of the 2021/22 season were only 464,300 tons, a decrease of 72% from the 1.
656 million tons in the same period last year
.
.
Data from the Canadian Grain Council shows that Canadian canola exports in the first eight weeks of the 2021/22 season were only 464,300 tons, a decrease of 72% from the 1.
656 million tons in the same period last year
.
The supply of rapeseed in Europe is also very tight
.
The French strategic grain company’s 2021/22 EU rapeseed supply will be further tightened, as imports from Canada are reduced and the EU's rapeseed crushing profits are attractive, driving demand to continue to grow, which will cause ending stocks to fall to a record low Point 600,000 tons
.
The inventory-to-use ratio of 3.
9% will also be a record low
.
With the soaring price of rapeseed, the rapeseed area planted in the EU next year is expected to increase by 7% year-on-year to 5.
6 million hectares
.
Rapeseed prices in 2021/22 will remain high, but they may face pressure in the coming weeks due to the influx of biodiesel from Argentina, the launch of soybeans in the United States, and the launch of late-harvest sunflower seeds in the European Union
.
Australian rapeseed will be harvested in November/December, and the output is expected to be high, which is expected to partially ease the tight supply at that time
.
.
The French strategic grain company’s 2021/22 EU rapeseed supply will be further tightened, as imports from Canada are reduced and the EU's rapeseed crushing profits are attractive, driving demand to continue to grow, which will cause ending stocks to fall to a record low Point 600,000 tons
.
The inventory-to-use ratio of 3.
9% will also be a record low
.
With the soaring price of rapeseed, the rapeseed area planted in the EU next year is expected to increase by 7% year-on-year to 5.
6 million hectares
.
Rapeseed prices in 2021/22 will remain high, but they may face pressure in the coming weeks due to the influx of biodiesel from Argentina, the launch of soybeans in the United States, and the launch of late-harvest sunflower seeds in the European Union
.
Australian rapeseed will be harvested in November/December, and the output is expected to be high, which is expected to partially ease the tight supply at that time
.
U.
S.
soybean harvest is one-third complete
S.
soybean harvest is one-third complete
The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed that as of October 3, the US soybean harvest was 34% complete, which was higher than market expectations of 32% and 26% higher than the five-year average
.
The excellent and good rate of soybeans remained stable at 58%, in line with market expectations
.
Field reports show that soybean yields are good
.
The warm and dry weather in the U.
S.
corn belt over the past week helped soybeans mature
.
.
The excellent and good rate of soybeans remained stable at 58%, in line with market expectations
.
Field reports show that soybean yields are good
.
The warm and dry weather in the U.
S.
corn belt over the past week helped soybeans mature
.
So far this year, the total US soybean export sales have decreased by nearly 40% year-on-year
The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending September 30, the US’s 2021/22 soybean net sales were 1.
042 million tons.
Although slightly lower than the 1.
094 million tons a week ago, it was within the industry’s expected range of 6.
5 million.
High-end from tons to 1.
2 million tons
.
The total US soybean export sales in the first month of 2021/22 was 25.
33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38%
.
However, the actual export volume was only 2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 70%
.
This is mainly due to the sluggish profits of China's soybean crushing, which prompted China to reduce purchases
.
So far this year, the United States has exported 775,000 tons of soybeans to China, which is 83% lower than the 4.
539 million tons in the same period last year
.
However, in the next few months, with the launch of new US beans, US exports to China are expected to increase substantially
.
042 million tons.
Although slightly lower than the 1.
094 million tons a week ago, it was within the industry’s expected range of 6.
5 million.
High-end from tons to 1.
2 million tons
.
The total US soybean export sales in the first month of 2021/22 was 25.
33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38%
.
However, the actual export volume was only 2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 70%
.
This is mainly due to the sluggish profits of China's soybean crushing, which prompted China to reduce purchases
.
So far this year, the United States has exported 775,000 tons of soybeans to China, which is 83% lower than the 4.
539 million tons in the same period last year
.
However, in the next few months, with the launch of new US beans, US exports to China are expected to increase substantially
.
South American soybean production prospects are optimistic, but La Nina weather deserves continued attention
Brazilian farmers began planting soybeans in September, and the output is expected to hit a record high
.
The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) predicts that Brazil’s soybean production will reach 147,552 million tons in 201-222, an increase of 2.
5% from the previous year’s 137321 million tons
.
However, the final production scale depends to a large extent on the weather situation
.
Soybean planting is currently progressing well, and favorable rains have appeared in many areas, but if the La Niña phenomenon recurs, it will reduce the soybean yield potential
.
.
The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) predicts that Brazil’s soybean production will reach 147,552 million tons in 201-222, an increase of 2.
5% from the previous year’s 137321 million tons
.
However, the final production scale depends to a large extent on the weather situation
.
Soybean planting is currently progressing well, and favorable rains have appeared in many areas, but if the La Niña phenomenon recurs, it will reduce the soybean yield potential
.
This week, StoneX expects that Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 will reach a record 144.
26 million tons, which is about 1 million tons higher than last month’s forecast due to an increase in the planting area
.
The sown area of soybeans in Brazil in 2021/22 will reach 40.
45 million hectares, higher than the previously expected 40.
1 million hectares and an increase of nearly 5% over the previous year
.
Stonex lowered the forecast value of Brazilian soybean exports for the 2021 calendar year by 1.
5 million tons to 84 million tons, because the cumulative export volume so far this year is slightly lower than the same period in 2020
.
However, Brazilian soybean exports in the 2022 calendar year will increase strongly to 92 million tons
.
Even so, Brazil's soybean stocks at the end of 2022 will still reach 8.
48 million tons, higher than the 5 million tons at the end of 2021
.
26 million tons, which is about 1 million tons higher than last month’s forecast due to an increase in the planting area
.
The sown area of soybeans in Brazil in 2021/22 will reach 40.
45 million hectares, higher than the previously expected 40.
1 million hectares and an increase of nearly 5% over the previous year
.
Stonex lowered the forecast value of Brazilian soybean exports for the 2021 calendar year by 1.
5 million tons to 84 million tons, because the cumulative export volume so far this year is slightly lower than the same period in 2020
.
However, Brazilian soybean exports in the 2022 calendar year will increase strongly to 92 million tons
.
Even so, Brazil's soybean stocks at the end of 2022 will still reach 8.
48 million tons, higher than the 5 million tons at the end of 2021
.
Supply and demand report next Tuesday may increase U.
S.
soybean production
S.
soybean production
Due to the good rains in August and September, which are conducive to the late growth of soybeans and offset the decline in yields in the western corn belt, the US Department of Agriculture may increase the US soybean production data in the supply and demand report released on Tuesday
.
On average, analysts expect US soybean production to be 4.
415 billion cats this year, which is higher than the 4.
374 billion cats predicted by the US Department of Agriculture in September
.
.
On average, analysts expect US soybean production to be 4.
415 billion cats this year, which is higher than the 4.
374 billion cats predicted by the US Department of Agriculture in September
.
Broker StoneX raised the forecast for U.
S.
soybean yields in 2021 to 51.
3 bu/acre, higher than the 50.
8 bu/acre predicted on September 2 and also higher than the current USDA forecast of 50.
6 bu/acre; US soybean production The forecast is also raised to 4.
436 billion pu, higher than the 4.
409 billion pu previously expected
.
S.
soybean yields in 2021 to 51.
3 bu/acre, higher than the 50.
8 bu/acre predicted on September 2 and also higher than the current USDA forecast of 50.
6 bu/acre; US soybean production The forecast is also raised to 4.
436 billion pu, higher than the 4.
409 billion pu previously expected
.
In its quarterly inventory report last week, the US Department of Agriculture stated that US soybean stocks on September 1st were 256 million cats, a 51% decrease from the same period last year, but higher than the industry's expected 174 million cats, and also higher than the USDA forecast in September.
175 million cats, mainly because the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will increase US soybean production by 80 million cats in 2020
.
The inventory on September 1 is also the beginning inventory of 2021/22.
Therefore, in the report next Tuesday, the beginning inventory will be 80 million bushes higher than the previous month’s estimate.
If the soybean production forecast is also raised as scheduled, the supply of soybeans will be 9 The month’s forecast is higher than 120 million bushels.
With export sales already declining and South American new soybean production prospects are optimistic, it will put downward pressure on US soybean prices
.
175 million cats, mainly because the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will increase US soybean production by 80 million cats in 2020
.
The inventory on September 1 is also the beginning inventory of 2021/22.
Therefore, in the report next Tuesday, the beginning inventory will be 80 million bushes higher than the previous month’s estimate.
If the soybean production forecast is also raised as scheduled, the supply of soybeans will be 9 The month’s forecast is higher than 120 million bushels.
With export sales already declining and South American new soybean production prospects are optimistic, it will put downward pressure on US soybean prices
.
