The global economy has stabilized and the dawn has emerged. The plastics industry is dominated by "I"

        Japan's November manufacturing PMI initial value was 48.
6, higher than the previous value of 48.
4; Japan's November Markit service PMI value was 50.
4, the previous value was 49.
7
.
Japan's November Markit composite PMI value was 49.
9, the previous value was 49.
1
.

        At the same time, Germany's third-quarter working day-adjusted GDP annual rate final value was 0.
5, and the second quarter was 0.
4
.
It is worth noting that although German, French and other manufacturing PMI data bottomed out in September, October and November continued to see good results
.
But it is still below the 50 line of prosperity and decline
.
Since the euro zone fell below the line of prosperity and decline in February 2019, most of them have continued to decline, especially the economic performance of the leader Germany has been poor
.

        Since China's official manufacturing PMI does not announce the initial value, we cannot know the value of China's PMI, and it will finally announce the monthly PMI report at 9:00 a.
m.
on November 30
.
Whether the manufacturing PMI of developed economies is good, whether it can be transmitted to China remains to be verified
.
From the perspective of the Sino-US trade war and global trade, it is the trade war that hinders China's exports and slows down economic development
.
China's manufacturing PMI is expected to be more in line with domestic fundamentals
.
The official manufacturing PMI came in at 49.
3 in October and is expected to be 49.
5 in November, slightly better than the previous month
.

        Eurozone and U.
S.
economic sentiment indicators are up

        As shown in the figure: After bottoming out in August, the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index has been positive for three consecutive months, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index has also been positive for three consecutive months
.
From the side, it reflects that the euro area and the United States are optimistic about the economic prospects
.
Can it be verified that developed economies have stabilized since then and entered the boom stage? At present, both indices are below the boom line, and the twists and turns of economic development may not be said to have entered the boom stage
.
The November economic sentiment index for the euro zone, the consumer confidence index for the euro zone and the industrial sentiment index for the euro zone released on November 28 were all slightly better than the previous month
.

        US economic data is positive
.
A number of US economic data released on November 27 generally performed well
.
Among them, the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States in the third quarter was revised up to 2.
1%
.
Instead of a slowdown as initially reported, U.
S.
economic growth showed a slight pickup in the third quarter, largely due to a faster pace of inventory buildup and a smaller decline in business investment
.
In addition, durable goods orders rose 0.
6% in October, better than expected
.
The Fed's Beige Book also seems to confirm this
.
While labor markets across the U.
S.
remained tight, overall payrolls continued to edge up slightly, with more Fed districts reporting manufacturing expansion than in the previous reporting period, although most remained flat, the Beige Book showed
.
Most Fed districts reported steady to moderate growth in consumer spending, and overall the outlook is good, with growth expected to extend into 2020
.
Affected by this, the U.
S.
dollar rose, with the U.
S.
dollar index hitting a high of 98.
46, refreshing a nearly two-week high
.

        Whether the global economy stabilizes or not, the plastics industry is subject to the trade war

        Judging from the export situation of plastic products, the top five exporting countries and regions in 2017 before the Sino-US trade war were: the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and India
.
Among them: exports to the United States were 15.
035 billion US dollars (accounting for 23.
97%), a year-on-year increase of 14.
23%
.

        The pace of global economic development varies, and is subject to the impact of trade wars, such as the Sino-US trade war, the EU-US trade war, and the US-Japan trade war, which will lead to a decline in global economic growth
.
The Sino-US trade war will affect China's export trade.
As the largest trading country, it will affect China's economic growth by -0.
5 to -1.
0%
.
As shown in the figure, judging from the export delivery value of rubber and plastic products, both the month and the cumulative export continued to decline year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase in the month was negative for four consecutive months
.

        Due to the Sino-US trade war, almost all exports to the US this year were negative year-on-year
.
From January to September, the bilateral import and export volume of goods between the United States and China was US$420.
72 billion, down 13.
8%
.
Among them, U.
S.
exports to China were $78.
76 billion, down 15.
5%, accounting for 6.
4% of U.
S.
total exports, down 1.
1 percentage points; U.
S.
imports from China were $341.
96 billion, down 13.
4%, accounting for 18.
2% of U.
S.
total imports, down 2.
8 percentage points percent
.
The U.
S.
trade deficit was $263.
20 billion, down 12.
8%
.

        As of September, China was the U.
S.
's third-largest export market and largest source of imports
.

        From January to September, the US imported plastic and rubber products from China accounted for 4.
6%, a decrease of 7.
6% year-on-year
.
The side verifies that China's exports of rubber and plastic products continue to decline
.

        From January to September, all U.
S.
imports from China fell
.

        The trade war between China and the United States has been repeated, but it is unlikely to be reversed at all
.
Trump faces an election next year and is expected to enter a decisive stage in the middle of next year.
He may relax in the Sino-U.
S.
trade war, but this also depends on the U.
S.
economic data.
The current U.
S.
unemployment rate has reached the lowest level in nearly 50 years
.
The job market is the mainstay of the economy, and as long as employment is stable enough to prevent unemployment from rising, it is possible for most Americans to remain confident enough to spend, offsetting other drags and moving the economy forward
.
Then it will be difficult to fundamentally ease the trade war
.
The plastics industry lacks an external driving force
.
Then the improvement of the domestic plastics industry will focus on "I", improve quality, optimize structure, and go out of the new world
.