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Last week, Sino-US economic data continued to be released intensively, the Fed's interest rate hike process was steadily progressing, China's fiscal policy was loose, and the acceleration of infrastructure investment was clear
.
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the off-season is gradually coming, the prosperity of the real estate industry continues to hit the market, and the important influencing factors of aluminum prices are gradually shifting
from the supply side to the demand side.
From the perspective of futures, the recent consolidation trend continued, and Shanghai aluminum rebounded
rapidly in the short term.
Aluminum prices continue to remain range-based
.
On the macro front, the Fed's accelerated tapering boots landed, and short-term risk sentiment ushered in a recovery
after the profit shortfall was exhausted.
In terms of fundamentals, the overall domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased slightly, but there are still some areas where the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has declined due to power reasons, and the short-term resumption of production is relatively poor, and the overall supply side of electrolytic aluminum is still limited
.
Recently, the price of alumina has fallen sharply, some holders have sold at low prices to clear inventory, and some downstream enterprises have begun to purchase and prepare inventory in advance in winter, resulting in the acceleration of the destocking of spot inventory accumulated in the port in the early stage
.
With the recent decline in imports, the overall port spot inventory has declined significantly
.
As of December 20, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 899,000 tons, down 15,000 tons from last Thursday (December 16) and 604,000 tons
in the same period last year.
On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum inventories continued to decline, LME aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises rose to form a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, at present, there is no signal to stop the decline of alumina, the cost of electrolytic aluminum has weakened, and the domestic epidemic has repeatedly led to the suspension of work and production of most recycled aluminum enterprises, and recyclers cannot receive and supply goods normally, and the price of aluminum is relatively weak
.
Technically, the hourly MACD indicator shows a red bar turning to a green bar, focusing on the pressure
above the 20,000 mark.
Operation suggestion, 19350-19850 range short operation, stop loss 150 points
each.
