The fundamentals weakened in stages, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum was weak

Market focus: (1) Fed Kaplan: see widespread price pressure; Some price pressures should prove temporary; Inflation of 2.
4% next year is expected to be broad-based
.
(2) As of July 1, Mymetal surveyed 88 electrolytic aluminum plants in production across the country, with a total inventory of 81,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 48,000 tons
from the same period last year.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 18710-18750 yuan / ton, the average price was 18730 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan
per day.
The holders are willing to sell at a high price, the receiving party is more wait-and-see to purchase at a low price, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is average, and the overall transaction performance is acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 69,245 tons, down 573 tons from the previous trading day; LME stocks were 1,568,900 tonnes, down 9,175 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2108 contract held 134218 lots, an increase of 1870 lots per day, a short position of 124271 lots, a daily decrease of 3902 lots, a net long position of 9947 lots, a daily increase of 5329 lots
.
Long and net increase, short decrease
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2018 contract weak operation
.
The US ADP employment data released last day exceeded expectations, and the dollar index rose
.
The recent rapid improvement of the epidemic in the United States, the sharp rise in prices, and the improvement of the employment situation are expected to prompt the Federal Reserve to take action to contract monetary policy in advance, and the possibility of the dollar index rising in the long run is still high
.
Near the end of the month, China's carbon trading market is about to be officially listed, although the electrolytic aluminum industry is temporarily not included in the scope of trading, but the carbon trading price or give a certain guiding role, will affect the market's expectations
for aluminum smelting costs.
In addition, the market once again reported that the aluminum plant that has been suspended for a long time began to resume work, coupled with the overall decline in domestic consumption in the off-season, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of accumulation, which made the fundamentals weaken in stages, the price was under pressure, and the center of gravity was more likely to fall
.