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Last week, affected by the expected recovery of the Fed's interest rate hike, Shanghai rubber fell first, falling 420 yuan / ton or 3.
29%, closing at 12,360 yuan / ton, reducing its position by 18,700 lots to 246,800 lots
.
After the weekly close of the week for two consecutive weeks, Tokyo Rubber fell sharply due to the adjustment of investors' positions and the decline of Shanghai Rubber
.
At present, the global supply of tianjiao still exceeds demand, and the price of tianjiao wants to continue to rise, and there is still greater resistance
.
In terms of spot, the 15-year quotation of state-owned whole milk in the Shanghai market is about 10300 (0) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 10600-10700 (-100/-100) yuan/ton; 15 years Thailand No.
3 tobacco sheet 12450-12550 (-100/0) yuan/ton; RMB mixed rubber 10800 (-100) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 50.
05 (-0.
53) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 50.
77 (-2.
08) baht/kg; Field glue 49 (+1) baht/kg; Cup glue 41 (-0.
5) baht/kg
.
In terms of inventory, as of the end of August, the total rubber warehouse of Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 116,900 tons, down 25.
35% from the beginning of the month, of which the natural rubber inventory was 75,700 tons, down 31.
31% from the beginning of the month, and the inventory continued to decline
rapidly.
The continuous improvement of downstream demand has formed an important support for Tianjiao, and the rapid decline of spot inventory is also positive, and it is not advisable to be too bearish
.
In terms of demand, according to the latest statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative production and sales of domestic automobiles in the first eight months of this year were 16.
846 million and 16.
755 million units, up 10.
82% and 11.
43% year-on-year, respectively
.
Since the country introduced the halving of the purchase tax of cars with a displacement of less than 1.
6 liters last year, the production and sales of domestic automobiles, especially passenger cars, have continued to increase, and the policy will continue until December this year, and it is expected that the potential consumption power of those who intend to buy cars before the expiration will be concentrated and released, and the automobile market may usher in a new peak
before the end of the year.
August commercial vehicle sales were 275,500 units, up 11.
99% and 11.
38% month-on-month, of which heavy-duty truck sales were 22,955 units, up 44.
24% year-on-year and down 0.
78%
month-on-month.
As of September 9, the operating rate of rotational enterprises remained around 70%, of which 69.
81% were all-steel tires and 72.
10%
were semi-steel tires.
However, it should be noted that with the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the later opening rate will decline
.
Up to now, the improvement of downstream demand has formed a good support for the demand for tianjiao, and although the operating rate of rotational enterprises will decline due to the holiday in the future, the strong consumption of terminal automobiles will continue, which will be more beneficial to the price of tianjiao
.
