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Copper prices have entered a cycle of sharp corrections since last week
.
Copper prices were relatively limited in volatility yesterday, showing a slight recovery
while the US dollar remained weak.
On the macro front, global central banks are likely to continue to maintain their current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the US dollar is expected to remain weak
.
In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences in the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still difficult to say that it is generous, and on the demand side, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to pull copper demand, and the next peak season destocking is likely to form a strong support for copper prices, temporarily maintaining the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices, but if the destocking in the second quarter is not as expected, The rise in copper prices may be weaker
than previously expected.
At present, from a fundamental point of view, the peak season destocking expectations of copper varieties do not seem to have been fulfilled, but on the other hand, although the current TC price has rebounded slightly, it is still at a low level, and if the price of sulfuric acid falls back after that, it will form a major pressure on refinery profits, so the current fundamental situation is relatively neutral overall
.
Last week, China had a document saying that it would pay close attention to the soaring prices of industrial products, so the non-ferrous metal sector would also be affected, so it was recommended that copper prices be treated in a relatively neutral attitude for the time being
.