The first model to predict the lifetime risk of heart failure

• Early identification of risks is important for young people who may not be aware of their risks

• The model uses simple risk factors-blood pressure, smoking status-to predict risk

• Not all people with high blood pressure or obesity have the same risk of heart failure

Imagine you go to a doctor, answer a few basic questions, and then estimate on the spot whether you will experience heart failure in the next 30 years
.

This model now exists, thanks to a new Northwestern Medical study that derives and validates the first life-long risk prediction model for heart failure
.

Being able to identify who is most at risk for heart failure-especially in the high-risk young adult population-will allow doctors to begin preventive measures earlier
.

"Once someone shows symptoms of heart failure, the window of prevention is closed.
This is a missed opportunity because the risk of death within five years after diagnosis is 50%, similar to a cancer diagnosis," Northwestern University Feinberg School of Cardiology Said Dr.
Sadia Khan, assistant professor of science and epidemiology and Northwestern Medical Doctor
.

Prior to this work, no model could assess the long-term risk of heart failure
.

Now, the model will allow doctors for the first time to estimate a person’s risk of heart failure in the next 30 years based on a person’s current level of risk factors, such as body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes, and smoking status
.

This research was recently published in the American Heart Association's "Circulation Research" journal
.

Heart failure is the leading cause of hospitalization for 1 million people in the United States, causing 300,000 deaths each year
.

Khan said that not all patients with high blood pressure or obesity have the same risk of heart failure
.

Khan said: "These new models provide opportunities for clinicians and patients to start discussing at the individual level the opportunity to start prevention early in the life course
.

Khan said that because it is well known that black and white men and women have different risks of heart failure, risk prediction models are derived in each individual demographic subgroup

For example, an average 40-year-old non-smoker with a high systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg without treatment, and a body mass index of 30 kg/m2, is considered obesity, and the risk of heart failure is estimated to be 22.

Article title

Development and Validation of A Long-Term Incident Heart Failure Risk Model