The first half of the international pig market and its future development trend

Introduction: on September 2, according to the comprehensive information of the international pig market, in the first half of 2002, the international pork market generally showed a situation of surplus supply and insufficient demand 1 U.S pork exports fell, imports increased, and prices fell From January to April 2002, U.S pork exports fell 4.63% compared with the same period last year In several major export markets, pork exports to South Korea increased by 76.79%, to Canada by 8.63%, to Mexico by 0.42%, to Hong Kong by 22.22%, and to Russia by 60.42% The U.S Department of agriculture expects U.S pork exports to fall by about 5% in 2002 From January to April 2002, the import of live pigs in the United States increased by 17.32% compared with the same period last year, and the import of pork increased by 14.01% The growth of the import of pork in the United States is mainly due to the increase of the export of live pigs from Canada to the United States, which accounts for more than 11% of the total export of pork every year The decrease in exports, the increase in imports, and the impact of the downturn in domestic beef and poultry prices on pork prices in the United States led to the continued decline in pork prices in the United States, which led to the early listing of pigs in the United States and a further increase in pork supply in the market At present, some economists in the United States have warned that the pig industry in the second half of the year is likely to repeat the mistakes of 1998 pork glut and big price cut 2 The seasonal decline of Danish pork price is still continuing Due to the integrated management mode of "from farm to table" jointly carried out by the United States and Canadian pig raising enterprises, the number of imported pork and live pigs from Canada in the United States has continued to increase in recent years, and the number of imported pork from Denmark has decreased At the same time, feed safety problems in Europe have a greater impact, and domestic pork prices have continued to fall seasonally On the other hand, Danish pork production continues to grow Therefore, it is expected that Danish pork prices will continue to decline in the future, with little room for recovery 3 The export of pork in the Netherlands has been banned, and the price of domestic pork has fallen The Netherlands is the second largest pork exporter in the world In 2002, the situation of Dutch pork export was also very unfavorable Under the unfavorable situation of export, it is expected that there is little room for the price recovery of Dutch pork in the short term 4 Japan's restrictions on pork import will further reduce the price of pork in the international market Due to the development of Japan's domestic food processing industry and the influence of BSE, the price of pork in Japan showed a strong upward trend in the second quarter of 2002, which is in sharp contrast to the depressed International market price, resulting in the continuous increase of Japanese pork import From April to May 2002, Japan imported about 165473 tons of pork, an increase of 20% over the same period of last year Pork imports mainly came from the United States, Canada and Denmark According to Japanese law, if the pork import in a certain quarter exceeds 19% of the level in the same period of the previous year, the government will impose an emergency tariff on the imported pork, and this law is also consistent with the permission of the WTO's emergency measures To this end, Japan's Ministry of agriculture, forestry and Fisheries recently announced that the government will implement emergency tariff measures on imported pork due to the import volume of pork in the second quarter exceeding the limit of 207038 tons, which has put new pressure on the price of pork in the international market (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: