The domestic corn price trend will be dominated by

Introduction: since the middle of July, the price of domestic corn has started to fall At present, it has entered the consolidation stage and the market trading volume has decreased The average plate price of corn in Jilin Province is stable at 1080-1090 yuan / ton, and that in Heilongjiang Province is 1060-1070 yuan / ton The price of corn in Fujian Province is 1300 yuan / ton, and that in Hunan Province is 1290 yuan / ton The port price is also stable The closing price of Dalian port is 1180 yuan / ton, and that in Qinhuangdao port is no obvious fluctuation, staying at 11 70 yuan / ton, Huangpu port price stable at 1280 yuan / ton Due to the gradual weakening of factors that promote the rise of corn price, it is expected that corn price trend will be the following behavior before the listing of new grain The fundamentals of the analysis are as follows: 1 It is estimated that the export of corn is still slow in the past two months According to the data of customs, in June, China exported 120000 tons of corn, a decrease of 350000 tons compared with the previous month; from January to June, China exported 3.14 million tons of corn, a decrease of 19% compared with the same period last year We believe that the reduction in the number of exports is one of the main reasons for the recent fall in prices Since June, South Korea has imported a large number of American corn, the purchase demand has begun to decline, and the capacity of China's corn export market has shrunk It is expected that the export volume of corn in July and August will be higher than that in June, but the export volume will not exceed 300000 tons At present, the September contract price of corn in Chicago is 87 US dollars / ton, which is about 107-109.5 US dollars / ton in South Korea, while the closing price of corn in Dalian is about 98.3-99.3 US dollars / ton in South Korea Considering a certain quality difference, there is no absolute price advantage between the two At the same time, due to the high price of corn in China and the decrease of profit margin of export corn of traders, grain storage enterprises are not willing to provide export grain It is expected that the driving effect of export on corn price will be weakened 2 It is expected that feed demand will recover slightly in August and September Since May, the feed industry has entered a recovery growth period, with the rapid growth of corn demand, a large number of feed enterprises to replenish the stock, and the price is rising Subsequently, due to the abundant stock and excessive capital occupation of some feed enterprises, the market purchase gradually decreased; at the same time, the price ratio of corn and wheat was too large, and some large feed processing enterprises changed the feed formula, using wheat instead of corn, and the demand for corn also decreased It is rumoured in the industry recently that Japan will resume the import of poultry meat to China It can be predicted that the broiler breeding enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and other places will resume a certain scale of stock, and the demand for feed will also increase In the early stage, due to the selling pressure of grain storage enterprises in the production area, traders were short, and their stocks and funds made them possible to do more again This is the main support for a small reversal 3 The government's macro-control policy has caused the market to wait and see the news of the country's large-scale selling of state grain reserves to the market in the near future continues to spread Jilin Province will complete the task of selling 2.5 million tons of overdue corn storage by September Grain storage enterprises have changed from reluctant to sell in the past to active sales At the same time, major provinces are applying to the state food authorities for the introduction of policies for the treatment of stale grain At present, there is no accurate information about the disposal policy of stale grain Some traders and grain consuming enterprises began to hold a wait-and-see attitude, which restrained the price rise in production and marketing areas 4 The psychological expectation of autumn grain production reduction has declined In July, most areas of the production and marketing area experienced timely rainfall and the drought was relieved In the first ten days of August, the soil moisture in Northeast China was further improved with the increase of precipitation At present, maize in Northeast China has entered the stage of heading pollination, while that in North China is basically in the stage of jointing heading China's corn output in 2001 / 2002 will be about 1.14 billion tons, which will increase by about 8% compared with the previous year The psychological expectation of autumn grain production reduction will decrease, which will weaken the driving force of price rising To sum up, the factors that promote the price of corn in the early stage are decreasing gradually Before the new grain is listed, the price of corn will be dominated by the following factors, but there will be fluctuations during the period.