The domestic corn market will not be as good as last spring

Introduction: why the domestic corn market is not as good as it is in the past this spring? The main reasons for the weakness are still considered from the following aspects: first, the selling of stale grain and stale chemical grain restrains the market development, and the price is under heavy pressure In 2000, China banned the sale of aged corn in the market, which reduced the impact of low price corn on the market The fixed price grain and negotiated grain must be sold at a lower price At the same time of the implementation of this series of measures, the state carried out a nationwide Warehouse Clearance and inventory inspection, which provided a strong foundation for the substantial increase of corn price In the early stage, China's grain authorities proposed that, in order to ensure the normal and orderly upward movement of corn prices, the state would not intervene in the market too early, and the number of sold-off grains would be limited, which reduced the panic of the market, guaranteed the upward movement of prices, and went through a period of upward movement However, in a few months, Hebei, Dalian, Zhengzhou and other places successively launched Chen grain into the market On the other hand, under the influence of policy guidance factors, the competent grain departments stimulate the storage enterprises to reduce inventory, adjust the distribution methods of storage subsidies, reduce the reluctance of the storage enterprises to sell, and prepare for the new grain storage Under the influence of two factors, the market supply pressure is constantly upgrading, which has brought heavy losses to the weakening domestic corn market At present, the quantity of aged grain and aged grain in China is still large According to the news, the later selling activity will continue, which undoubtedly increases the market atmosphere again, affects the purchasing psychology of the purchasing enterprises, slows down the increase of corn demand, and hinders the growth of corn demand Further increase in price 2 The scope of protection is narrowed and the price base is weakened In 2000, although some regions in China withdrew from the purchase of protective price, most regions still maintained the protective price policy, which undoubtedly played a role in price protection for the market, narrowing the space for price downward and creating conditions for corn price upward In 2001, China's North China and Huang Huai regions announced to withdraw from the scope of protection price acquisition, while the main corn producing areas in Northeast China still need to continue to implement the protection price acquisition policy However, unlike in the past, this year's new standard of unit weight will be implemented for the first time when purchasing new grains, and the protection price of corn will slightly increase or even compared with last year The standard corn products in Northeast China (second class, 14 water) The purchase price is 0.035 yuan / Jin higher than that of last year, including 0.47 yuan / Jin, 0.46 yuan / Jin and 0.455 yuan / Jin in Liaoning Province, Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province, respectively The price of neighboring provinces is implemented in Inner Mongolia However, according to the new food standard, the standard water content is reduced from 18 to 14, and the actual protection level is still the same as that of last year In addition, there are also restrictions on the level of corn to be protected Only corn above the third grade is protected, and corn below the third grade is not included in the scope of protection The strictness of the new grain purchase standard has an impact on the market Although the Northeast continues to hold the protective price policy, the overall support scope and strength are declining compared with last year, and the basic role of the new grain purchase standard in price rising is also declining 3 It has become a reality to enter the WTO It's hard to see the atmosphere fade away After 15 years of painstaking waiting, China finally joined the WTO, which has an important and far-reaching influence and promotion on China's economy But when we see its huge favorable factors, we also feel the pressure it brings to the grain industry First of all, the most obvious performance is the import and export trade, because of the original jade in China The influencing factors of rice export are domestic export subsidies, production costs and international prices After China's accession to the WTO, the government promised not to subsidize the export grain any more Therefore, from the perspective of domestic corn cost, without government subsidies, a large number of export corn is just an extravagant expectation Secondly, since the production cost of foreign corn is lower and the quality is better than that of domestic corn, a large number of imports are inevitable When the export is limited and the import is greatly increased, the domestic supply will be greatly increased According to the normal situation, China's corn production in that year can basically meet the domestic demand However, the increase of supply brought by the accession to the WTO will depress the market price predictably Although China is in the early stage of the accession to the WTO, the pressure of the accession to the WTO has been gestated in the market With the passage of time, this pressure is also constantly increasing To put it another way, due to the large annual corn production in China, the feasibility of completing the import quota of 5.85 million tons is not strong, and even if the market share is all completed, it is weak, which is not enough to form an excessive impact on the market However, the fact that there is no backward trade is true, and the market has doubts about the later trend 4 Corn planting area and yield increased instead of decreasing, and the price rose weakly in the later period Due to the continuous rise of corn price in 2000, although the state continued to implement the "corn soybean" rotation plan, farmers, driven by the immediate benefits, reduced the planting area of soybeans, and the corn planting area showed a restorative growth, with a total of 23.45 million hectares, an increase of 390000 hectares over the previous year The main production areas are Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and other places Among them, the planting area of Heilongjiang province increased by 17% compared with that of the previous year, and other areas also increased or remained flat on the original basis Although most areas in China suffered from drought again since the spring of 2001, the weather conditions have improved significantly since June The growth of corn is in good condition, which is the increase of output in the later period Canada has laid the foundation According to the analysis of the current situation, the total output of corn in China is expected to reach 108-112 million tons this year Although the increase of output makes us feel the joy of harvest, at the same time, we have to see the degree of its pressure on the market price New grains from North China and Huanghuai have been transported to the sales area in large quantities, while new grains from Northeast China are still in the acquisition stage and transported abroad in large quantities The scenario has not yet been formed, and the supply of domestic market is still sufficient in the later period The industry's confidence in the price rise of corn is insufficient, and the price rise is also weak 5 The export momentum has been greatly weakened, and the role of price promotion has been gradually diminished Although the export momentum was good in the first few months of 2001, and the export volume remained at a high level According to statistics, the export volume of corn from January to March this year was 600000 tons, 750000 tons and 940000 tons respectively, but the export volume gradually shrank in the following months, mainly due to the high price of corn, the competitiveness of China's corn in terms of price compared with that of foreign corn was greatly reduced In addition, China's jade The quality of rice is poor compared with that of foreign corn, which makes China's corn export pause several times Although the bidding results of corn export organized by two large domestic corn export groups of Jiliang and COFCO are significant in the later period, it is still difficult for traders to find suitable buyers due to price factors In the later period, there are a large number of resale phenomena of corn exported from ports, according to statistics of General Administration of customs The data shows that China exported 5.34 million tons of corn from January to November Compared with the same period of last year, the difference is large, and the export quantity is reduced It not only weakens the promotion of domestic market price, but also brings about the market supply can not be effectively reduced, the inventory pressure can not be effectively relieved, and the corn market is under pressure Above all, we have jointly constructed a weak pattern of corn market which is not prosperous this spring and weak market price rise In the later stage, various factors will affect the development trend of corn market, and the development of the situation will eventually have two sides, namely, promotion and obstruction, suppression and resistance, which will still become the mainstream of market operation At present, the selling price of corn is close to the bottom line, and there is little room for the price to fall Due to the role of current events, there is not much room for the price to rise We can be sure that under the active promotion of national policies, the market price of corn, the largest agricultural product in China, will be in line with international standards, and the industrial development will be broader (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: