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During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas copper prices first fell and then rose, London copper rose 1.
2% from before the holiday, the US dollar index fell 1.
8% during the same period, and the offshore yuan was basically flat
.
On the macro front, global manufacturing expansion slowed in January, PMI declined, and manufacturing activity in China contracted
seasonally.
While expectations of a Fed rate hike in March remained strong, copper prices rose as rising energy prices and poor non-farm payrolls data weighed on the dollar index
.
In terms of stocks, overseas copper stocks (LME+COMEX) decreased by 0.
98 to 154,000 tons during the holiday period, and total stocks remained at a low level, and London copper Cash/3M rose first and then fell, and the premium fell slightly to $29/ton
.
On the supply side, the country's copper production fell 0.
6% to 504,000 mt in December and 5.
68 million mt in 2021, down 1.
9%, according to official Chilean data.
It is reported that China's electrolytic copper production in January was 868,000 tons, down 0.
2% month-on-month and up 8.
8% year-on-year, and the increase in cold material supply and the reduction of maintenance activities made domestic smelters maintain high production enthusiasm, and production is expected to decline
month-on-month under the influence of the Spring Festival in February.
Under the background of the resumption of work and production after the holiday, copper demand is still guaranteed, and the supply of copper raw materials is still expected to be disturbed, the accumulation of domestic copper inventories is not as large as in previous years, the global low inventory state may continue, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, but the rise in global inflation and the tightening of overseas monetary policy will restrict the upward
height of prices.
This week's Shanghai copper main operating range reference: 70000-72500 yuan / ton
.
