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The dollar continued to fall today, crossing the 95 integer mark, copper prices were driven upward, and Shanghai copper rose to around the 49,000 pressure level at 1810
.
On the technical side, the moving average has some support, but the position volume has not changed significantly, and there are not many
funds to enter the market.
It is advisable
for the merchant to ship the goods in batches.
Downstream is not in a hurry to buy
.
In terms of spot, on the 28th, the premium of the spot market rebounded from the previous trading day, and the premium of the spot market rebounded
again after the previous decline.
The transaction volume in the spot market has improved, and the middlemen are more active in receiving goods when the premium is low, and the downstream receiving power of the terminal is limited; Driven by intermediary transactions, spot premiums have increased
.
On the 28th, the premium of Yangshan copper premium was flat, and the surrounding inventory structure still had no core change, so the short-term Yangshan copper premium continued to maintain a strong pattern
.
However, the current premium is already relatively high, far exceeding the long-term premium of Chile National Copper to China ($75/tonne), so it may attract South American supply to the bonded zone in the future
.
In addition, due to the expectation of China's smelting capacity, there is a risk
that the Yangshan copper premium will be strong in the near term and weak in the long term.
In terms of inventory, LME inventories continued to recover on the 28th, but not by much, but the increase in inventories was mainly concentrated in Asian warehouses, although it was more fragmented
.
Overall, from the supply side, the pressure is mainly concentrated from the end of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019, but the short-term supply pressure is not large; In addition, with the continuous reduction of copper warehouse receipts, and the improvement of seasonal demand in September and October, therefore, the spot premium has improved again, in addition, with the current fundamental expectations, the fundamentals are only promoted by the spread for the time being, and the absolute price of copper is mainly under the pressure of the expectation of future smelting capacity, and it is still not improving
.
