The disaster-affected market has skyrocketed. Will the market outlook for Shayuanzi continue to rise?

Astragalus complanatus is a small variety with concentrated production areas, and the price has not been high in recent years
.
In 2021, the market for this variety has steadily increased.
In October, due to floods in the production area, production was severely reduced, and the price doubled
.
The expected market in 2021 will be fulfilled, will the market outlook continue to rise? In this issue, Tiandi Yuntu's big data platform for the pharmaceutical industry made an analysis of the product market based on production and sales data
.
1.
Astragalus complanatus is about to produce new products Bozhou market: In October this year, the production area of ​​Astragalus complanatus was hit and prices rose rapidly.
At the same time, due to rain, the production schedule was delayed compared to previous years, and production reduction was a foregone conclusion
.
The current market conditions have temporarily stopped rising and stabilized, maintaining high prices.
The current market price of goods is 85-86 yuan (kg price, the same below)
.
Anguo Market: Due to the disaster in the production area, the supply of Shayuanzi in the market is insufficient, and the price has been rising all the way.
It has attracted the attention of many merchants and has been operating at a high level recently
.
The current market price is around 85 yuan, the market outlook is worth paying attention to
.
Yulin Market: The production area suffered heavy losses.
It is expected that the output will be greatly reduced, the market is short of supply, and the operators are reluctant to sell.
The market has stabilized after the continuous rise
.
The current price of the unified goods is about 85 yuan, and the new production is approaching.
The market outlook depends on the actual digestion situation
.
According to distributors in Shaanxi Dali producing area, the production area of ​​Astragalus sativus suffered from floods in mid-to-early October, and most of the low-lying planting plots were flooded, causing serious losses; and the production of some high-lying plots was also greatly reduced due to continuous rain
.
At present, the inventory of the origin has bottomed out, and farmers and distributors of the origin are out of stock.
It is expected that the local output of Dali will be around 100 tons this year, and the market will continue to rise after the new production
.
2.
The price of Astragalus complanatus doubles Figure: 2016-2021 market price trend of Astragalus complanatus (Shaanxi, Shaanxi) The production area of ​​Astragalus complanatus is concentrated.
Once a disaster occurs, the empty inventory can easily lead to price fluctuations
.
From 2009 to 2011, the market for Astragalus sativus rose sharply
.
In November 2010, the price soared to a historical peak of around 115 yuan
.
The high prices that lasted for two years have greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers for planting.
After the new production in 2010, the price plummeted.
In 2012, the price dropped to about 20 yuan
.
After that, the market price of Astragalus sativus hovered between 20-30 yuan.
The farmers' income was not high, but the production area had a habit of planting.
Although the market rebounded slowly, it has been difficult to have a big market
.
Until October 2021, Henan, Shaanxi and other places were hit by floods, and production was severely reduced.
The price of Astragalus complanatus broke through 80 yuan
.
3.
Concentration of production areas of Astragalus complanatus Astragalus complanatus is very concentrated.
The main producing area is Dali County, Weinan City, Shaanxi.
The output accounts for 80% of the national output.
It is also planted in Lintong, Linwei District, Zhouzhi and other places, but the output is not large.

.
According to the statistics of the big data platform of the pharmaceutical industry in Tiandi Yuntu, the output of Astragalus complanatus in 2020 is about 400 tons
.
Affected by floods in 2021, production is expected to be less than half of last year's
.
In addition, some suppliers of origin and hot money reserve the source of goods in advance, resulting in less circulation of market sources
.
4.
Increase in the dosage of Astragalus complanatus Astragalus complanatus is the mature seed of a leguminous annual herb Astragalus platyphylla.
It contains fatty oils, tannins, vitamin A substances, etc.
It is sweet in taste and warm in nature
.
Return to the liver and kidney channels
.
It has the effects of invigorating the kidney and yang, consolidating essence and reducing urine, nourishing the liver and improving eyesight
.
This product belongs to the third category.
Before 2004, only 150 tons were used in the country.
In recent years, with the increase in use, the dosage has increased
.
According to statistics from the big data platform of the pharmaceutical industry in Tiandi Yuntu, the demand for Astragalus complanatus in 2020 is about 463 tons
.
V.
Analysis of main products in demand and enterprise analysis In terms of the demand for proprietary Chinese medicines, 7702 varieties of proprietary Chinese medicines monitored by the platform were screened.
Currently, 49 proprietary Chinese medicines on the market contain Astragalus complanatus
.
The top Chinese patent medicines for Astragalus complanatus are Yishenling Granules, Shengfa Pills, Shengjing Capsules, etc.

.
The top Chinese patent medicine companies in demand are Hebei Wansui Pharmaceutical Co.
, Ltd.
, Chengdu Jiuzhitang Jinding Pharmaceutical Co.
, Ltd.
, and Tonghua Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.
, Ltd
.
.
VI.
Market outlook 1.
The planting cost is not high.
The current price is expected to stimulate production to resume.
The land price is about 600 yuan per mu, 600 yuan per mu for labor, 150 yuan for chemical fertilizers and pesticides, total cost 1350 yuan, and 100 kg dry goods per mu.
, The cost of contracting land for planting is about 13.
5 yuan/kg, and the cost of farming by farmers is 7.
5 yuan/kg
.
Calculated based on the market price of 40 yuan before October, the income of farmers is higher than that of growing food crops, not to mention the market price of 80 yuan
.
Production is expected to resume in 2022
.
2.
The high price is easy to be mixed with the fake Astragalus complanatus.
It is a seed.
It is small in size.
The price is good in the past two years.
The counterfeit is popular in the city.
The most famous counterfeit is Inner Mongolia Astragalus complanatus.
The output of counterfeit products is up to 10 tons
.
3.
Larger demand elasticity.
This product is mainly used in health care products.
The amount of medicines is less than 200 tons.
The high price suppresses the demand for health care products, and the decrease in the amount will also restrain the market from rising
.
To sum up, on the one hand, 25 yuan is the price line for Astragalus sylvestris growers to expand or not expand.
Farmers below this price will reduce their crops, and farmers above this price will expand their crops
.
This year's output has decreased, and the market has been released ahead of schedule.
Whether it can break through the last high price of 115 yuan depends on the actual digestion; on the other hand, the reserve chamber of commerce that established a low position in the early stage will show up before the new production
.
Therefore, from the perspective of the market of Shayuanzi next year, a fall in the market is a high probability event
.