The dimethyl carbonate market soared and fell

Since October, due to favorable factors such as low inventory accumulation in some factories, rising mainstream process raw materials, and downstream warehouse replenishment, dimethyl carbonate enterprises have risen
in the offer.
On October 8, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises rose by 300 yuan (ton price, the same below) to a high of
7,000 yuan.
As of October 16, the mainstream price of dimethyl carbonate was 6500~6800 yuan, down 200~500 yuan
.

"Due to the relatively sufficient market supply, traders and downstream concentrated on stocking on the first day after the holiday, the purchasing mentality slowed down, the market transaction was obviously weak, and enterprises were willing to
give up profits.
At the same time, the raw materials are weak and the cost support is weak
.
The dimethyl carbonate market is expected to continue to
decline.
Zhongyu Information dimethyl carbonate analyst Feng Na believes
.

Slowing down the purchasing mentality

In mid-September, a wave of centralized stocking
began downstream of dimethyl carbonate.
After the National Day, the downstream ushered in a wave of centralized procurement and stocking
.
Recently, due to the slowdown in purchasing mentality, the price of dimethyl carbonate has fallen
.

According to industry analysts, the previous price increase was mainly due to the relatively low cumulative capacity of dimethyl carbonate factories during the National Day period, and the supply pressure of factories after the holiday was small
.
After returning from the holiday, the overall high market of raw material propylene oxide gave support to the cost of dimethyl carbonate, while the downstream demand side performed well, and the terminal market replenishment was positive
.
Therefore, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is running
upwards as a whole.

However, for the recent decline in the price of dimethyl carbonate, Feng Na explained: "The main downstream electrolyte solvent of dimethyl carbonate is not good, and the profit space is limited
.
The rising dimethyl carbonate market is close to the psychological price in the industry, and companies are no longer concentrated in stocking
.
Since October 10, some dimethyl carbonate manufacturers have reported that the price of 7,000 yuan is weak, hoping to promote single sales through micro-concessions, and then increase the price back after issuing orders, but there is no upward trend
in the market at present.
”

Therefore, Feng Na believes that due to the lack of market momentum to continue to rise, dimethyl carbonate may have a period of sideways volatility in the short term, and the risk
of decline cannot be ruled out.

The raw material methanol is weak

Methanol, as a raw material for dimethyl carbonate, has fallen back after the recent market rise, and the cost support of dimethyl carbonate has weakened
.

After the National Day, there is a certain demand for replenishment from methanol traders and downstream enterprises, and the market circulation of goods is relatively limited
due to the recent impact of the epidemic in many places.
This, combined with the decline in methanol imports, has led to low inventories at
ports.
As of October 8, the price of methanol rose widely, and the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, rose by 270~290 yuan to 3280~3300 yuan compared with the pre-holiday period, but it fell after only 3 working days, and now fell by 410 yuan to below
2900 yuan.

"Recently, Inner Mongolia Jiutai Group's new 2 million tons/year methanol plant is expected to be put into operation, which has a strong
impact on the later supply of the methanol market.
At present, due to the impact of the epidemic in major methanol producing areas such as Shanxi, the methanol transportation cycle has been extended
.
From the perspective of cost, as Inner Mongolia, Northeast China and other places begin to enter the heating period, the demand for coal will further increase, so the probability of a sharp decline in coal prices before the end of this year is small
.
As a raw material for methanol, coal has a certain cost support
for methanol.
However, from the profit analysis of the entire industry chain, there is a negative feedback expectation for downstream olefin losses, resulting in a decrease
in the enthusiasm for methanol procurement.
On the whole, the cost support of methanol is relatively weak, and it is expected that the market may run weakly, and it is difficult to support the cost of
dimethyl carbonate.
Longzhong methanol analyst Cui Zhiming said
.

The supply is relatively abundant

At present, except for the 150,000 tons/year plant of Hubei Sanning Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
, the remaining plants in the domestic dimethyl carbonate plant are in normal production, and the overall operating rate is 90%, an increase of 12 percentage points
over mid-September.

"At the end of October, Jiangsu Lianyungang Hicospai New Energy Technology Co.
, Ltd.
's 100,000 tons/year plant is planned to be put into production, and Hubei Sanning Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
's 150,000 tons/year plant intends to resume production; In November, the 300,000 tons/year plant of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
and the 100,000 tons/year plant of Shandong Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
may be put into production; In December, Shandong Depu New Material Technology Co.
, Ltd.
60,000 tons/year plant or put into production
.
If these plants are put into operation as scheduled, domestic production capacity will be increased by 710,000 tons/year in the fourth quarter, and the total production capacity will reach about
2 million tons/year by the end of the year.
The increase in the supply of dimethyl carbonate will have an impact on shipments and pricing of other plants, and the dimethyl carbonate market may show a downward trend
.
Chen Yingjie, dimethyl carbonate analyst at Longzhong Information, said
.