The dilemma of domestic corn market in the near future

Introduction: in April, the domestic corn market experienced a small increase in the initial stage, and in April, the domestic corn market experienced a small increase in the initial stage, and the current price remains high and stable At the beginning of April in Jilin Province, it was 970 yuan / ton, and at the end of April, it was 980-990 yuan / ton The growth of production areas was larger than that of sales areas, but the growth trend slowed down In May, the factors that affect the price change are more complex The positive and negative factors are hard to distinguish between the winners and the losers, which offset each other The possibility of high price consolidation and slight correction is too high, which may lead to the dilemma of rising and falling The specific analysis is as follows: NSV 1, favorable factors: NSV 1, policy impact At present, the national grain inventory investigation has been carried out, which is divided into three steps: self inspection and spot check It lasted from late March to late May 2003 Once the inventory situation is reported in the investigation stage, if the stock is moved or sold, an application should be made to the Agricultural Development Bank of China for approval before the inventory can be moved, which will inevitably affect the trading activity of grain and reduce the trading volume NSV 2 Financial constraints of grain management enterprises At present, the unprotected price loans of grain management enterprises in Jilin Province are still not in place Affected by the capital, the number of purchase and order of grain circulation enterprises in the production area is reduced At the same time, only the self owned grain sources purchased by the protected price purchase loans are less, which affects the large-scale operation of grain NSV 3 It is difficult to carry out large-scale rotation and auction in the production areas due to warehouse clearance and SARS in the near future, and there is no large amount of grain in circulation Although there are many provinces to auction at present, the number of corn auctions is small, which is not enough to affect the market Moreover, the higher average price of corn in Dalian auction is about 1000 yuan / ton, which also supports the current market NSV 4 China's export policy support The role of export pulling domestic demand will continue At present, it is reported that the export subsidy is about 330 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 30 yuan / ton The export shipment has been extended to the third quarter of 2003 NSV 5 China's corn still has price advantage, and the increase of China's corn export CIF price is lower than that of the United States At the end of April 2002, the FOB of the US Gulf of Mexico was 87 tons, the freight from the US Gulf to Asia was 21 dollars per ton, and the cost of arriving in China was 1093 yuan / ton; at the end of April 2003, the FOB of the US Gulf of Mexico was 107 tons, the shipping rate had exceeded 32 dollars per ton, and the cost of arriving in China was 1393 yuan / ton, 33 dollars / ton higher than that in 2002 In the same period of 2002, China's fob95 USD / ton, and the FOB price of feed corn from April to June in 2003 was 108-110 USD / ton, with no change in sea freight, up only 13-15 USD / ton year on year NSV 6 The drought in the production area is still severe According to the national grain and oil information center, corn production is expected to drop to 189.2 million tons in 2003 NSV 7 Railway transportation continued to be tense The low rate of railway repair and maintenance and the return of South wagons will affect the railway transportation, and it is learned that the reverse arrangement plan for grain delivery is not necessarily guaranteed NSV 8 At present, northeast is the main grain source in the sales area In Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas, where the market is rising, there are more corn in Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, while in Central China, Shandong is the main source of corn, but there are basically a small amount of corn, mostly for individual use The demand of large feed enterprises is mainly from northeast grain sources, while Jilin corn is relatively few, indicating that Jilin grain sources are mainly export-oriented The distribution of inventory is unreasonable, and the arrival of goods in Northeast China will affect the market changes NSV 2 Negative factors: NSV 1 Consumption is still not very prosperous Bird flu has severely damaged the breeding industry and affected feed consumption, while the setback in the export of livestock and poultry products has made the breeding industry worse The recent outbreak of SARS in China is also expected to affect the export of livestock and agricultural products It is said that some countries have rejected China's shipping goods in order to prevent SARS If SARS is not controlled as soon as possible, China's foreign trade will be damaged, which will also cause a vicious circle of domestic consumption NSV 2 Restricted by the sluggish consumption, the pace of procurement in the sales area slows down The purchasing activity before May Day is not as active as that before the Spring Festival, and the transactions in production and marketing areas are not active NSV 3 The number of exports will also decrease in the long term Since the number of contracts signed after April is relatively small due to the undetermined export policy of China (there is only a quotation for the shipment from April to May after the middle of February), the number of exports from April to May is certainly less than the number of million tons per month from January to March NSV 4 Good weather in the Midwest planting area of the United States caused pressure on the market, and CBOT corn price rose weakly After May and June of NSV, the work of clearance and inventory inspection was completed, and grain sales were promoted in all provinces, and the centralized warehouse out would also affect the further price rise NSV
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