The development situation of domestic corn in the later period is generally optimistic

Introduction: in the near future, the overall performance of the domestic corn market is better In the near future, the overall performance of the domestic corn market is better, and the price generally slightly rises It is expected that the domestic corn price will keep a slight rise in the later period, because: GBq 1, the expected domestic corn planting area will decline, It will form a favorable support for the later price rise of corn According to the prediction of the national grain and oil information center, the corn output of China in 2002 was 124 million tons Although the growth rate was larger than that in 2001, it still did not reach the best level in history Due to the long-term downturn of corn price in 2002, the farmers did not increase their income in the year of high yield, In the past year, the price of soybean has been strong, and the income of farmers from planting soybean is good, which will stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers to plant soybean In addition, the national implementation of the soybean revitalization plan will increase the planting area of Northeast soybean, which will lead to the reduction of corn planting area According to the prediction of a domestic organization, this year, China's corn planting area will be significantly reduced, It is estimated that the average planting area of corn in China will decrease by 2% - 3% At present, the domestic corn has not been planted, if the above prediction becomes a reality, it will lay a foundation for the domestic corn price rise GBq II The domestic corn inventory level will decline year by year, and this year will be a low point in recent years As the corn consumption level in China increases year by year, under the condition of stable supply quantity, At the beginning of the period, the inventory gradually decreased Although the elimination of export subsidies after China's accession to the WTO has weakened the competitiveness of China's corn in the international market, under the strong support of national policies, the export of corn still maintained a rapid growth trend The export of corn increased for several consecutive years, greatly reducing the pressure of domestic corn inventory and the decrease of corn inventory, Finally, it is reflected in the price It is predicted that China's carry over inventory in 2003 / 04 will decrease by 9 million tons, about 49 million tons, which is the low point in recent years Thirdly, with the corn sales in Central Plains running out, northeast corn will become the main role of market supply The transportation "bottleneck" problem not only affects the soybean sales in Northeast China, It also restricts the corn transportation to the south in Northeast China This situation is obvious in the fourth quarter of 2002 The problem of railway transportation capacity restricting the corn transportation to the south is expected to be alleviated in the future After the new corn production in North China and Huanghuai area is listed in the normal year of GBq every year, most regions in China will go to North China and Huanghuai area to purchase grain, In this area, there are a large number of self sold and exported corn, and the available quantity of real estate corn can be maintained until March to April of the second year, and the export capacity of corn in the north will be greatly weakened; because the acquisition of new corn in the Northeast will start in the middle and late November, and the export quantity of corn in the Northeast will be affected by the centralized acquisition from November to march to April of the next year, and remain at a low level; At this time, the relatively low purchase price of southern corn and the short transportation distance from the main sales area of the south make Northern Corn at a disadvantage It is expected that this seasonal consumption peak in Northeast China will come on schedule this year, and the inventory level of enterprises in the southern sales area will be greatly consumed with the passage of time, At this time, enterprises in the Central Plains will also search for sources of goods due to the limitation of local inventory Under the circumstances that it is difficult for imported corn to enter smoothly, northeast corn will become the only source of supply for domestic corn demand, and the number of northeast corn entering the customs in the South will greatly increase At that time, the domestic corn price will encounter the opportunity of rising again In, China's corn export will maintain a strong trend The price of corn in the U.S has risen sharply due to the reduction of production, which creates a good opportunity for China's corn export The cost of American corn shipped to Asia is about 10 dollars higher than that of China's corn per ton, and the domestic corn export has an advantage in price and region At the end of 2002, As the fifth largest corn import region in the world, Taiwan has temporarily lifted the ban on corn import from the mainland This year, Brazil's willingness to import corn from China has gradually increased due to the reduction of domestic corn production and supply level In fact, since November 2002, the relevant departments of the Brazilian government have been discussing the issue of corn import from China In addition, it is reported that cereals group has made preliminary contact with Brazil on this issue, and recently an official of Brazilian embassy in China confirmed this intention again China's corn entered the Brazilian market, opening up a new sales area for domestic corn export A large number of corn exports will help ease the backlog of domestic corn inventory In 2002 / 03, the international corn supply-demand relationship continued to be tight, and the international corn price represented by the United States will continue to maintain a high level At the end of February, the average CIF price of American corn to China was 130 US dollars/ In the first half of 2003, the average duty paid cost of the port to transport corn to China was about 1300-1320 yuan / ton (duty paid = 130 × 1.01 (customs duty) × 1.13 (value added tax) × 8.28 (exchange rate) + 100 (Port miscellaneous, commodity inspection, letter of credit) = 1327) In recent years, the average price of Yumi port in Guangdong was only about 1150 yuan / ton, The price of imported corn is far lower than that of imported corn As the international corn price is still on the high side and the imported corn is at a disadvantage in price, the quantity of imported corn in China will remain at a low level in 2003 GBq analysis shows that the domestic corn market in the first half of 2003 has a good operating environment, which lays a solid foundation for the upward development of corn price in the later period