The copper market has ups and downs, and the short-term upward momentum is insufficient

In terms of news, on April 7, the United States launched a military strike on Syria, launching 59 Tomahawk missiles to attack Syria
.
The immediate trigger for the airstrikes was the Syrian government's use of chemical weapons against the opposition and civilians during last week's military operations, which Trump said the United States could not tolerate
.
The US air strike on Syria marks the beginning of the Trump team's Middle East policy, and the US Middle East strategy has officially turned
.
At the same time, according to the Russian Daily, the spokesman of the Russian Black Sea Fleet said that the Russian Black Sea Fleet frigate "Admiral Grigorovich", which set sail for the Mediterranean region on April 7, has now been officially assigned to the Russian combat navy in Syria and is preparing to perform military tasks
.
The United States and Russia are constantly engaged in geopolitical games in the Middle East, and military threats are constantly escalating
.

The geopolitical crisis will promote market funds to find safe-haven investment methods, and Shanghai copper, as a base metal with obvious financial attributes, has a clear hedging role
.
Follow-up attention will pay attention to whether safe-haven funds will enter the non-ferrous metal market
in large quantities.

In terms of inventory, from the past trend, most of the rise in copper needs to be matched with the reduction
of Hulun copper inventory.
As of April 7, London copper stocks were 265,000 tons, a significant increase from about 225,000 tons in February, and SHFE copper stocks were about 315,000 tons, far exceeding about 144,000 tons
in January-February.
After the spot stock rose rapidly from around 39,000 yuan / ton to more than 45,000 in November last year, spot traders still maintained a fear of heights for high-priced spots, while downstream demand was sluggish, resulting in a large backlog of copper inventories, forming resistance
to the rise in copper prices.

At the same time, the sustained rise in copper prices often requires the cooperation
of speculative positions.
As for the US copper fund holdings that were concerned after the group, as of March 21, COMEX copper CFTC non-commercial speculative positions have maintained a large number of speculative long positions since December last year, and the speculative long positions in 2017 have been higher than the long positions
of 09.
Such a large number of net long positions indicates that the market is bullish on copper prices
.
However, from the perspective of position structure, after entering March, CFTC speculative funds increased short orders, and long orders decreased slightly, resulting in a continuous decline in the net long positions of CFTC speculative funds, the latest reported net more than 26864 lots, for the 23rd consecutive week to maintain a net long state, the record high was 61115 net long hands set at the end of December last year, which means that copper prices have insufficient short-term upward momentum, but the fund is still actively bullish on copper prices in the medium term
.

Looking ahead, after Trump takes office, Trump's policies and actions have become the biggest source of uncertainty in the market, and with the US bombing of Syria, whether geopolitical issues will continue to heat up for a period of time will remain high uncertainty
.
Recently, many real estate places have successively introduced purchase restriction policies, which has a certain negative impact on the fundamentals of non-ferrous metals, but with the concept of Xiong'an New Area, the construction of new areas makes people think of it, and will have a new supporting effect
on non-ferrous metals.
Recently, the 5/10/20/40 and 60-day moving averages are gradually approaching, both around 47000-48000
.
Without strong positive news stimulus, short-term Shanghai copper may continue the range shock market of 46,000-48,000 points
.