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On Monday, Shanghai aluminum rushed back down, the amplitude was large, today's domestic non-ferrous metal market rose and fell, as of the end of the day Shanghai aluminum rose 1.
81%.
At the press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission this morning, a series of signals were released, including keywords such as "dual control", "carbon reduction", "power rationing" and "two highs" to boost aluminum prices, coupled with the frequent production cuts on the previous supply side, pushing aluminum prices to a new high since April 2008
.
The contradiction between supply and demand caused by the problem of power rationing is still the focus of attention, although the upstream and downstream of the electrolytic aluminum industry chain are affected, but the impact is mainly concentrated on the upstream supply side
.
Up to now, according to Baichuan statistics, Yunnan and Guangxi alone have reduced production by about 1.
3 million tons due to power restrictions, and the overall production has been reduced by 2.
12 million tons
in 2021.
Since last week, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has risen slightly, but the absolute value is still at a historical low, and the main reason for the lack of destocking is the concentrated arrival, so it is judged that the inventory is only temporary and has a limited
impact on aluminum prices.
Overseas, the US index is weak, providing upward momentum for Lun Aluminum in the short term, while the news that Australia's Tomago aluminum plant is facing the risk of production cuts has also boosted bulls
' sentiment.
However, the spread of the global epidemic, the Fed's Taper expectation is ahead of schedule, and domestic reserves are still risk points
that need to be paid attention to in the near future.
Overall, before the power rationing problem is alleviated, aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate strongly
.
