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Weak cost support and weak demand support
Weak cost support and weak demand supportOn June 25, the mainstream transaction price of wet-process carbon black N330 in North China was 7,700 (ton price, the same below), which was 300 yuan or 3.
8% lower than the monthly high
.
"Affected by factors such as falling raw material prices and weaker downstream demand, coupled with the recent price reduction plans of carbon black manufacturers, the short-term carbon black market is expected to continue to decline
.
" Zhongyu Information Carbon Black analyst Ma Haiying and other industry insiders believe
Weak cost support
Weakening of cost supportThe main raw materials of carbon black are coal tar, anthracene oil, and ethylene tar, which account for about 80% of its cost
.
The prices of these raw materials declined weakly in June, which weakened the carbon black market
"In the week of June 25, the anthracene oil market went down, and the price dropped by 100-150 yuan from last week
.
In terms of coal tar, the current coal tar deep processing product, coal tar pitch, is affected by factors such as environmental protection inspections and transportation controls.
“Since June, the prices of deep-processed products such as coal tar pitch, industrial naphthalene, and anthracene oil have been lowered
.
The coal tar market’s buying enthusiasm has declined, coupled with the lowering of auction prices by producers, driving the coal tar market down slightly
Weak demand support
Weak demand lifting demand Weak lifting demandChina's carbon black is mainly used in tires, automobile rubber products and non-rubber products
.
Among them, carbon black for tires accounts for 67% of the total consumption, which is the largest downstream of carbon black; followed by non-rubber products, occupying 11% of the market share
"The performance of the tire market in June was weak.
The main reason was that the domestic economy did not perform well; the second was the rise in steel prices and the general performance of the tire terminal industry.
The current tire industry operating rate is at 50% or 60%, which is relatively low
.
Last week, Shandong area The operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 64.
And the tire export market has not improved
.
China is one of the world's major exporters of tires, and its products are mainly exported to Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam
.
A few days ago, the data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that the country exported 540,000 tons of rubber tires in May, a decrease of 4 tons from April
"The shipping problem is difficult to solve in a short time, or it will cast a shadow on China's tire export market in the second half of the year
.
Generally speaking, due to the hot and rainy weather in July, the downstream market is in the off-season for production and sales.
In addition, due to the
Supply tends to be loose
Supply tends to be loose Supply tends to be loose The domestic carbon black production capacity is surplus, and the market supply pressure is relatively high
.
In the case of insufficient demand, it has highlighted the loose supply
.
“In June, most of the carbon black industry, except for individual companies’ overhauls and production-restricted shutdowns due to environmental protection, continued to operate normally.
The overall operating rate was around 65%, and the supply was relatively sufficient
.
From the downstream point of view, the current domestic tire inventory is relatively large.
There are 45 to 60 days of inventory in general, and the normal inventory is generally within 30 days
.
Under high inventory pressure, tire demand for carbon black has declined significantly
.
Therefore, carbon black companies are currently under greater shipping pressure and inventory is relatively high.
It has been accumulated
in the early period .
Under the influence of many negative factors, it is expected that there will be room for correction in the price of carbon black in the future
.
" Liu Xiao said
.
In addition, the export volume and price of China's carbon black have fallen at the same time
.
According to customs statistics, in May, China’s carbon black export volume was 67,600 tons, a decrease of 15.
29% from the previous month; the average export price was US$1240.
9, a decrease of US$21.
3 from the previous month, which is difficult to boost the domestic carbon black market
.
