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The aniline market has fluctuated and declined since it hit a new high in mid-March this year.
The mainstream transaction price dropped from 13,800 yuan (ton price, the same below) to around 9,100 yuan in early June, a 34% decline in the past three months, reaching a critical point of profit and loss.
Line
.
Entering mid-June, the market entered an inflection point at the cost line, and the domestic aniline market in various regions stopped falling and rebounded
"Recently, the overall rebound in the aniline market was mainly due to the sudden and sharp decline in the operating load of manufacturers.
At the same time, supported by the high and stable raw materials, the market for major downstream products of aniline also started to rise, which to a certain extent boosted the recent aniline.
It is
expected that the short-term market will still have some room for growth
.
” Said Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator
Supply drops sharply
Supply dropped sharplySupply dropped sharplyAccording to statistics from Henan Chemical Network, as of June 18, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aniline companies was 45%, a weekly drop of 14%
.
Judging from the operation of the main installations, the 260,000-ton/year facility in Shandong Jinling was shut down and planned to start operation on July 3; the 260,000-tonne/year facility in Shanxi Tianji will be overhauled on June 17, and it is scheduled to start operation at the end of June
Shao Huiwen said that after the aniline market hit a new high in March, it fluctuated all the way down, and the price fell near the cost line
.
It can be seen from the market transaction status in early June that the market supply and demand have basically been balanced, which is the key period for stabilization and consolidation
Raw materials remain stable at a high level
The high level of raw materials remains stable the high level of raw materials remains stableSince the second half of last year, the domestic aniline raw material pure benzene market has steadily increased.
By mid-May this year, the price hit a new high in the past two years, reaching 8,200 yuan
Henan trader Yan Shaoqi analyzed that due to the high operating rate of major downstream industries, the possibility of a sharp correction in the pure benzene market in the short term is unlikely
.
At present, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic styrene and phenol enterprises has reached more than 89%, forming a strong support for the demand for pure benzene
Downstream market rises
Downstream market rises downstream market rises According to Li Peixin, purchasing director of Jiangsu Dipu Technology Co.
, Ltd.
, the downstream of aniline is mainly MDI, dye and auxiliary industries
.
Among them, the price of MDI also declined after hitting a high of 27,500 yuan in March this year, and fell to around 17,000 yuan in June, a decrease of 38%
"At present, the MDI installations of Yantai Wanhua and Ningbo Wanhua have reached full load, and the load of Shanghai BASF's installation has also increased significantly to 80%, while the load of other Shanghai Costron, Chongqing BASF and other installations has also remained at about 80%, except for the self-supporting aniline.
The products still need to be purchased out, which are good for the formation of the aniline market
.
" Li Peixin analyzed
In addition, after March, domestic dyes, auxiliaries and other manufacturers have resumed production one after another, and there is a trend of increasing production, and there will be a rigid demand for aniline
.
It is expected that the aniline market will continue to rebound in the later stage after digesting the inflated bubble in the early stage
.
However, due to the limitation of the operating rate of many downstream enterprises, the demand has not yet seen a significant increase, so the aniline market is unlikely to rise sharply again in the short term
.
According to analysis by industry insiders, the current domestic macroeconomic outlook still maintains a steady and positive trend, while the previous sharp general rise of chemical products has recently been suppressed to a certain extent, and the hype factor has cooled down
.
However, there are still many uncertainties in the international situation.
Crude oil is unlikely to fall sharply in the short term.
Its trend is positively correlated with the pure benzene market.
It is expected that the market outlook for the aniline market will still form basic support
.
