The analysis of corn purchasing market in Northeast China

Introduction: after the autumn grain purchase meeting of four provinces and regions in Northeast China in the middle of November, grain storage enterprises in Northeast China actively prepared for the corn purchase, and successively explored some acquisitions But until the end of November, there was no significant increase in corn purchase in Jilin, Liaoning and other places This year's acquisition work was delayed about 30 days compared with last year, but compared with the normal year, the peak of northeast corn acquisition and listing did not show significant delay According to our analysis, the main reasons why the state-owned departments in Northeast China did not launch a large number of acquisitions of new corn in November are as follows: first, the continuous drought in spring and summer in some parts of Northeast China this year increased the cost of drought resistance in corn planting In particular, farmers in Jilin area are reluctant to sell corn easily, and they are reluctant to sell corn in a short period of time Second, before the middle of November, due to the high temperature in Northeast China, there was no big freeze, and corn was not easy to thresh In recent week, the temperature in Northeast China and North China has dropped a lot, and the newly produced corn has been frozen However, snow appears in most areas of Jilin, which is not conducive to farmers' threshing and transportation Third, the Northeast grain storage enterprises do not have a clear understanding of the prospect of corn purchase, dare not purchase a large number of corn, and the market is also looking for a reasonable positioning of open price Different from North China, the northeast corn collection and storage business can be sold as it is received However, the northeast corn collection and storage has to go through a long storage period and pay a higher storage and finishing cost, so the relative market risk is relatively large Fourth, the purchase funds of the state-owned grain departments in some regions are not in place, and the purchase loans of Agricultural Development Bank will not be issued until the purchase work begins At the beginning of December, it was reported that two major corn exporters in China had part of their corn export contracts cancelled, including the cancellation of one million tons of corn export contracts by Jilin grain group According to the news, the industry's bearish mentality has been strengthened, and the corn price in the Northeast market, which has been in the doldrums, has fallen again The signs show that the cancellation of the corn export contract in China will probably become a signal of lower corn purchase price in Northeast China First, the news of partial cancellation of export contracts will change farmers' short-term mentality of reluctant to sell In addition, with the continuous downturn of the market, prices will fall again, which will increase farmers' mentality of selling Second, in the first ten days of December, due to the decrease of temperature in Northeast China, the speed of corn threshing will be accelerated, and the number of corn sold will increase Third, the Northeast grain storage enterprises are pessimistic about the prospect of corn acquisition Although they have begun to acquire, the number of acquisitions is not growing fast At present, the acquisition progress in Liaoning Province is slightly faster Fourth, this year, other channels are allowed to participate in the acquisition of corn in Northeast China At present, the main acquisition channels in the market are feed breeding enterprises, processing enterprises and private vendors, etc., but the enthusiasm of these channels has also declined Fifthly, although the northeast region implemented the protection price purchase policy this year, the quality of corn in this year's northeast region is not as good as that of last year due to the influence of drought and early frost Moreover, this year's grain purchase implemented a new grain standard, which is changed to set by volume weight, which will lead to an increase in the proportion of substandard corn other than the third grade, and will reduce the overall level of corn purchase price It is understood that the water content of corn that has been threshed in the Northeast in the first ten days of December is lower than that in the last ten days of November, among which, the water content of Jilin corn is about 27-28, that of Longjiang corn is about 29-30, and that of low point is about 20 The purchase price of central Longjiang (Harbin) is 38 yuan / 50kg, the purchase price of eastern area (Jiamusi) is 36-37 yuan / 50kg, and the purchase price of Central Jilin (Changchun) is about 40-41 yuan / 50kg Generally, the purchase level is not significantly lower than that of late November The main reason is that the quality of corn sold by farmers to the country is still relatively high, but It is expected that with the influx of new corn into the market, there will be signs of lower acquisition prices.