The aggregate MDI market is on the strong side

Following the two rapid upward movements at the beginning and end of the "Golden Nine", the domestic aggregate MDI market was still running
strongly in October.
As of October 14, the mainstream offer price of Polymer MDI Wanhua Goods (PM200) is about 17,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the quotation price of Shanghai factory is 16,600~16,800 yuan, an increase of 700 yuan
from the beginning of October.

"In the future, the short-term supply side and cost side are good for the aggregate MDI market, but as the price rises, the willingness to take profits to ship heats up, or curb the increase in the price of
aggregate MDI.
" Pan Jinsong, senior engineer of Shandong Institute of Industry and Information Technology, made the above judgment
.

The supply-side benefits remain

In September, the market price of aggregate MDI has fallen to the lowest level in two years, reaching 14,500 yuan
.
In the state of extreme short positioning, the market recovers orders, and the aggregate MDI price rises
sharply.
Subsequently, the supply and demand game surface gradually became prominent, the price was stable and small, the range was mostly sorted, the high-price transaction was relatively average, and the shipment was negotiated
.
However, with the overall supply reduction during the month, the aggregate MDI settlement and listing price both went up, and under cost pressure, the price at the end of the month moved up sharply by 1,000 yuan
.

Entering October, the aggregate MDI market is on the strong side
.
After the National Day holiday, a factory in the north distributed aggregate MDI at a price of 17,500 yuan in October, an increase of more than 2,000 yuan over September, which boosted market confidence
to a certain extent.

With the recent news activity, the center of gravity of the aggregate MDI market pushed up, and the low price disappeared
.
With the promotion of time, the profit taking order increased, and the willingness to ship on the floor remained
.
The recent pressure on the supply side is small, the volume is limited, the control capacity still exists, and the active promotion in the field can still be maintained
.

For the future market, Pan Jinsong analyzed that Yantai Wanhua, Ningbo Wanhua, Chongqing BASF, Shanghai Cisco innovation equipment have reduced the load to varying degrees, and in the short term, the aggregate MDI market is easy to rise and difficult to fall
.

The cost side remains strong

From the perspective of upstream raw materials, aniline and pure benzene have continued to rise, giving cost support
to the polymeric MDI market.

"Benzene prices rose for most of September
.
In particular, pure benzene encountered the 'double-section' downstream stocking tide, and the downstream of Shandong just needed to purchase high enthusiasm, boosting market confidence
.
Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, introduced
.

With the rise in the price of the Shandong market, low-priced goods from East China flowed into the southwest Lu region, driving the transaction center of gravity of the East China market higher, but after the price increase, the market demand in East China weakened
.
At the same time, the inventory of downstream plant products declined, and the profit of the plant was repaired, the overall downstream operating rate continued to increase in September, and the demand for pure benzene increased
.

During the "Eleventh" holiday, the Chinese market was closed, and the price fluctuations of aromatics were mainly affected
by crude oil.
Driven by the surge in crude oil prices and the shutdown of many sets of equipment for maintenance in October, the overall supply in Asia was tight, and the price of aromatics in the outer disk rose widely, giving the domestic market a strong upward momentum
.
Coupled with the high market of pure benzene in Shandong, the gap between the market price and the main price widened, and the bullish sentiment in the market accumulated
.
In the case of strong crude oil and the delay in putting new equipment into production, it is expected that the short-term pure benzene market will fluctuate upward, and the main price has room to
rise.

The raw material aniline is affected by the long-term shutdown of Jilin Cornell, and the spot supply is in a tight balance
.
After some demand in East China shifted to northern procurement, the inventory of aniline factories in the north fell rapidly, and prices continued to rise
.
The demand for downstream pre-holiday stocking is high, and the domestic aniline market continues to rise, and the price runs to 12,800 yuan
.

"In the future, the supply of aniline is tight, while downstream demand is still strong, the listing price of pure benzene is raised to 8,000 yuan, the fundamentals of aniline continue to strengthen, and it is expected that the short-term price is expected to hit 13,500 yuan, giving strong cost support
to polymeric MDI.
" Wang Quanping analyzed
.

Mild repair on the demand side

From the downstream perspective of polymerized MDI, demand is expected to improve significantly in October, especially the demand for plates, spraying and other industries has improved in stages
.
However, the market performance of pipes and polyester foam caulk is relatively flat
.

Industry insiders believe that the real estate is cold, resulting in the current performance of the exterior wall insulation and pipeline insulation industries is not as good as the same period
last year.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in January ~ August, China's automobile production was 17.
376 million units, and the output of refrigerators was 55.
46 million units
.
Although the production of refrigerators declined slightly, the automobile manufacturing industry continued to grow rapidly, with production increasing by 39%
year-on-year.

Specifically, the market activity of rigid foam polyether is generally good
.
The new production capacity of the rigid foam polyether plant has not had an impact on the market, and some factories are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the main factories generally have a relatively stable single schedule
.
In terms of price, after following the upward trend of raw materials, although manufacturers maintain orders to promote orders, there is no low price feedback
without shipment pressure and cost concerns.

For the later market, Pan Jinsong believes that with the colder weather in the north, pipeline construction is suppressed, and the performance of the refrigerator and freezer industries is average, and it is expected that the rigid foam polyether market will fluctuate in the range, or cause a certain drag on the polymer MDI market
.