The 200 billion market will shrink?

Last week, the first batch of new crown antigen self-test products were approved for listing and pre-sale started.
On March 14, related concept stocks rose sharply
.
As of the close on the 14th, BGI was up 9.

On March 16, or due to factors such as centralized procurement, the concept of new crown testing weakened significantly.
In the intraday session, Novozymes, Wanfu Bio, etc.
fell by more than 10%, while Rejing Bio and Huada Gene fell by more than 8%.
%
.

Graphics: rainbow

On the other hand, the State Food and Drug Administration announced the approval of two more new coronavirus antigen detection reagent products
.
As of March 16, the State Food and Drug Administration has approved 12 new coronavirus antigen detection reagent products

0 1.
When the sale is launched, it will meet the centralized procurement, and Wanfu Bio will be the first to reduce the price!

Since the launch of antigen testing products, several chain pharmacies, including Yifeng Pharmacy, People's Pharmacy, etc.
, have begun to cooperate with companies related to the self-testing of COVID-19 antigens.
Online sales channels such as Tmall, JD.
com, and Meituan have also been follow up
.
It is understood that the sales price of new crown antigen detection products fluctuates around 30 yuan per copy

From the perspective of online pharmaceutical e-commerce channels, many merchants have started the reservation and pre-sale mode
.

Meituan: The price of Rejing Bio's new crown antigen test product is 21 yuan per person, the price of 20 people of Wanfu Bio is 450 yuan, and the price of 20 people of Novizan is 418 yuan;

Jingdong: The price of Rejing Bio’s new crown antigen test product is 24.
80 yuan, the price of 10 people of Lepu is 238.
80 yuan, the price of 20 people of BGI is 490.
00 yuan, and the price of 10 people of Wantai Bio is 268.
00 yuan;

Taobao: There are fewer merchants.
The price of one person for Rejing Bio’s new crown antigen test product is 21.
4 yuan, and the price of 10 people of Wanfu Bio is 329 yuan;

Pinduoduo: The price of Novozan for 20 people is 409 yuan, and the price of 20 people of Wanfu Bio is 467 yuan.
.
.

It can be seen that the current price of online new crown antigen detection products has been concentrated at around 20 yuan to 25 yuan
.

As a supplement to nucleic acid testing, antigen testing products that have been approved one after another cannot escape centralized collection
.

On the news, on March 15, Shandong Province announced the launch of a special centralized procurement of antigenic new coronavirus antigen detection reagent products
.
According to the notice, with the approval of the State Food and Drug Administration, manufacturing enterprises that have obtained the legal qualifications for the procurement of relevant reagent products can apply for participation, and the applicant enterprises must have continuous production capacity and guarantee supply

Enterprises can make their own quotations according to the price of 1 person of registration certificate products, and the quotation shall not be higher than the highest valid quotation price
.
The declared price is not higher than 1.

Shandong province said companies should offer no less than cost
.
If the number of companies to be selected exceeds the number specified in the bidding rules due to the same quotation, the company with the largest committed supply (single-day supply) will be given priority

In principle, this centralized procurement in Shandong Province is 1 year
.
During the procurement cycle, if the selected enterprise produces a new lower selected price from centralized procurement in other provinces, the selected enterprise should apply to the provincial public resources trading center within 20 working days, and the low linkage will be determined

From rapid approval to centralized collection, the price of antigen testing products does not seem to have received much of the dividends that have just been launched, and the competition is becoming more and more fierce
.

Wanfu Bio has started a price war
.
On March 15, Wanfu Biological applied for an adjustment to the price of its selected product novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) antigen detection kit (colloidal gold method) in Guangdong and Henan Provinces to 9.

It is worth noting that in April 2021, the Guangdong Provincial Drug Trading Center launched the regional centralized procurement of new crown detection reagents, and the main entities participating in the procurement of the alliance regions are Guangdong, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, Guangxi, Hainan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan.
, Gansu, Qinghai Province (city, autonomous region)
.
At that time, Wanfu Bio was selected as the only company selected at RMB 16.
8 per person
.
Compared with last year, the price reduction of Wanfu Bio's antigen detection kits decreased by about 41.
7%
.

Wanfu Biotech has lowered the price of new crown antigen detection products to less than 10 yuan.
It is expected that after centralized procurement, related products may also refer to this price
.

0 2.
The 200 billion market may shrink? Antigen detection has limited application scenarios

According to previous estimates by a number of brokerages, with reference to the policy on the issuance of overseas new crown antigen self-test kits, the domestic market space for new crown antigen testing is between 200 billion and 300 billion yuan each year
.
For example, Pacific Securities estimates that Germany provides free antigen testing services at most once a day during the peak of the epidemic, while other overseas countries issue about 2-10 antigen self-testing products per month, and the unit price of domestic manufacturers is 0.
7-2 US dollars
.
According to the test frequency of 1-2 times per capita per month during the peak period, the ex-factory unit price of 8-12 yuan, and the total population of 1.
4 billion, the domestic market for antigen self-testing in a single month reaches 11.
2-33.
6 billion yuan
.

Today, with the advent of centralized procurement, the retail price of COVID-19 antigen testing has dropped significantly, and the final market size may shrink accordingly
.
In addition, the new crown epidemic is also full of uncertainty, and it is difficult to say what the subsequent market size will be
.

Novozan previously issued a risk warning when the company's stock price continued to rise.
The company said that the sales of its products are affected by many factors such as national epidemic prevention and control and procurement policies, testing needs, changes in the new crown epidemic, and may face fierce market competition.
The continuous impact on the company's future performance cannot be specifically predicted
.

According to the suggested usage scenarios of domestic policies, Shenwan Hongyuan Research believes that the estimation of the market size of antigen testing can be divided into three aspects:

In view of the situation of dissemination in many places in China, provinces and cities with large-scale screening needs;

For the scene application of customs, airports, hospitals, schools and other crowd gatherings;

Personal home self-assessment needs
.

On March 16, at a press conference on the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic held in Changchun City, Jilin Province, it was clarified that Changchun City would increase the antigen detection method as a supplementary plan, and Jiutai District will carry out it in the whole district
.

In addition, the Medical Administration and Hospital Administration also clearly mentioned in the "New Coronary Virus Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Plan (Trial Ninth Edition)" that on the basis of nucleic acid testing, antigen testing should be added as a supplement to further improve the ability to detect early cases
.

However, experts from the National Health Commission also reminded that the general population should not self-test antigens at will
.
At the press conference of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council, Li Jinming, deputy director of the National Health and Medical Commission's Clinical Laboratory Center, reminded that antigen testing should be used for high-risk, high-prevalence clusters of infections, and the general population should not do antigen testing at will
.

According to the antigen detection application scheme, the suitable population for antigen detection is:

Persons who go to primary medical and health institutions for treatment, have respiratory symptoms, fever and other symptoms and have symptoms within 5 days;

Isolation observation personnel, including home isolation observation, close contact and sub-close contact, entry isolation observation, closed control area and personnel in control area;

Community residents who need antigen self-testing
.

Guoyuan Securities pointed out that since mid-February this year, the epidemic in China has faced the most severe test since March 2020.
Nearly 2,000 new local cases were added in a single day, and the overall trend was spreading in many places.
Pressure builds up
.
Large-scale nucleic acid testing needs to consume a lot of medical resources, and it takes a long time to get the results, and there is a risk of cross-infection during the process of going to nucleic acid testing
.
In contrast, antigen testing is more convenient and fast.
Users can perform self-tests at home, and the results can be obtained in 15 minutes, which is in line with the social policy of "dynamic clearing" and reduces the cost of government prevention and control
.

It is not difficult to see that with reference to overseas sales, large orders are purchased by the government and then distributed free of charge
.
Therefore, the final release of antigen testing may still require government procurement
.

0 3.
The domestic market has only just started, and domestic antigen detection reagents are going overseas to "rush for gold"

New crown detection reagents are mainly divided into three types: nucleic acid, antigen and antibody
.
Among them, antigen detection reagents are simple to operate and fast to detect, suitable for large-scale screening scenarios, and are currently widely used in overseas countries with severe epidemics
.

The new crown antigen test has advantages.
Although the domestic official approval is late, the overseas market is quite mature
.
Moreover, China is currently one of the major producers of antigen testing products
.
Hundreds of Chinese brands with COVID-19 self-testing reagents have been registered and approved overseas, and the high demand for exports has driven the rapid expansion of production capacity of related companies
.

According to the statistics of West China Securities, since 2021, the self-testing products of new crown antigens have been widely used in major European countries.
In 2021, Germany took the lead in introducing the relevant approval system, and then France, Belgium, the Netherlands and other countries successively approved antigen self-testing products
.

At present, the product supply in the European market is sufficient.
According to incomplete statistics, there are currently 95 Chinese antigen testing products certified by the EU, including Wanfu Bio, Oriental Bio, Yahuilong, Lepu Bio, and Jidan Bio
.

In February 2021, the FDA approved the first COVID-19 antigen detection reagent for home testing.
With the pandemic of Omicron, the demand for antigen self-testing products in the United States has ushered in a large-scale growth
.
At present, the US FDA has relatively strict approval for new crown antigen self-test products, and only 13 companies have been approved, among which domestic companies include Jiu'an Medical, Aikang Bio, and Oriental Bio (Siemens is an approved product, and Oriental Bio is the manufacturer)
.

In 2022, a large number of domestic new crown testing companies will announce their 2021 performance reports
.
Sina Pharmaceutical has observed that the rapid expansion of new coronavirus antigen self-test products in overseas markets is one of the main reasons behind the surge in the performance of new crown testing companies including Rejing Bio, Botuo Bio, Aotai Bio, and Oriental Bio
.

Even Jiu'an Medical, which was called a "demon stock" in the industry some time ago, also benefited from the "take-off" of its antigen detection reagents in overseas markets
.
On November 7, 2021, Jiu'an Medical's antigen home self-test OTC kit obtained the US Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), becoming the second domestic rapid test product that has been authorized by the US FDA for emergency use
.
Since then, the share price of Jiu'an Medical has risen sharply, and hundreds of millions of overseas large orders have been pouring in
.

On the other hand, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, China will export 71.
4 billion yuan of new crown antigen kits in 2021.
It is expected that with the repeated epidemics, short-term overseas demand will still be strong
.

Many people in the industry believe that if the approval of domestic antigen testing products is accelerated, some companies with high reputation and strong supply capacity are expected to benefit further
.