The 100 billion blue ocean opens the national carbon market and enters the countdown

The countdown to the launch of the National Carbon Emissions Trading Market (referred to as the "National Carbon Market") has begun.
A reporter from China Securities News recently learned that the national carbon market's first compliance cycle pre-allocation quota will be officially issued in the near future.
At that time, the provincial eco-environmental departments across the country will check the amount of corporate quotas issued and issue the quotas to the provinces (cities) for key emissions Unit registration account.
"The construction of the national carbon market has entered a critical stage.
" Liu Jie, general manager of the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange, revealed that the national carbon market has completed the construction of supporting systems such as the trading system, registration system, and data reporting system, and is actively advancing the allocation of allowances.
, System testing and other related work, will officially launch online trading before the end of June.

Market construction enters the "preparatory sprint period"

"According to the relevant requirements of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, enterprises must complete the 2020 greenhouse gas emission data before April 30, provincial departments must complete verification work before June 30, and provincial departments must complete quota verification before September 30.
Enterprises will Complete the payment of quotas before December 31.
” Liu Jie said that the overall structure of the national carbon market is gradually becoming clear.

From the perspective of the system architecture, the National Carbon Emissions Trading Agency is responsible for organizing the centralized and unified trading of national carbon emission rights.
"In order to achieve a unified market and price for carbon emissions trading across the country, the trading system is designed and constructed in accordance with the overall considerations of "safe and stable system operation, fair and efficient trading development, comprehensive and in-depth market supervision, and convenient and fast participation by entities.

" Liu Jie said that the trading system is a centralized and unified trading platform for national carbon emission rights, which brings together all national carbon emission rights trading instructions and unified matching transactions.

Regarding the trading mechanism, the “Interim Regulations on the Management of Carbon Emissions Trading Management (Draft for Comment)” issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in 2019 proposed that according to the needs of regulating economic operation and stabilizing the carbon emission trading market, the key emission units can be sold through auctions.
Allocate carbon emission rights with compensation, or organize the purchase of carbon emission rights obtained by key emission units or other units that voluntarily participate in carbon emission rights trading.

"At present, the exchange has established risk prevention and control systems such as price limit, maximum holding limit, large account report, risk warning, abnormal transaction monitoring, risk reserve, etc.

As the top priority in the construction of the carbon market, data quality verification has become the key to the design of the system.
"Because of the uneven development, management awareness and management level of Chinese enterprises, the level of collection, sorting and archiving of basic data is also uneven, and the data lacks uniformity, completeness and authenticity.

Therefore, we are responding to The establishment of a complete greenhouse gas emission MRV system is the premise to ensure the construction of the carbon market.

Regarding the establishment of the carbon market system, Liu Jie suggested that in the future, he expects to further improve the trading mechanism and introduce more investors to appropriately improve the liquidity and activity of the carbon market.
It is recommended that the quota market and the voluntary emission reduction market be unified to avoid inefficient operations caused by market fragmentation and decentralization, and to give play to the synergies between the voluntary emission reduction market and the quota market to realize the large-scale and standardized development of the national carbon market.

The exploration of carbon financial derivatives is steady

As the construction of the national carbon market further accelerates, the exploration of carbon financial derivatives represented by carbon forwards and carbon futures is also steadily unfolding.

From the perspective of pilot carbon markets in various places, carbon exchanges in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hubei, Guangdong and other places have made more explorations in the innovation of carbon financial products.
Among them, carbon trading includes carbon borrowing, custody, carbon bonds, Carbon forwards, over-the-counter options transactions, over-the-counter swaps, secured CCER (National Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction) forward contracts, etc.
; carbon financing includes carbon funds, carbon allowances and CCER pledges, and carbon allowance repurchases Financing, carbon allowance sale and repurchase, cross-border carbon asset repurchase, etc.

　　“After the national carbon market is online for trading, carbon finance will be gradually built according to the development stage of the carbon market in the future, and various financial products will be developed after the market and policy conditions are mature.
” Liu Jie said, carbon forward in carbon financial derivatives , Carbon futures play an important supplementary role to the carbon spot market.

In 2016, the Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hubei carbon markets launched carbon allowance forward trading.

　　“As of the end of 2020, Shanghai’s cumulative long-term carbon quota transaction volume has reached 4.
33 million tons, and it has been increasing steadily almost every year.

After the national carbon quota runs smoothly, we will speed up the long-term research on the national carbon quota and actively seek the support of the competent authorities.

　　Regarding carbon futures, Ji Xiaoyun, a researcher at Green Dahua Futures, believes that the future market potential of carbon futures is huge.
According to the standard that the EU carbon futures trading volume is 30 times that of the spot, my country’s carbon futures trading volume may reach about 400 billion tons.

The pilot carbon market is estimated at an average price of 50 yuan/ton, and the annual trading volume of carbon futures will reach 20 trillion yuan, roughly equivalent to rubber, iron ore, copper and other varieties in volume.

　　Liu Jie suggested that, under the premise of compliance with policies and financial security, the financial productization of carbon trading should be further promoted, and top-level design of spot, derivatives and futures should be carried out, so as to form a multi-level carbon market.
Build an international carbon pricing center and carbon financial center based on the national carbon trading market.

　　100 billion blue ocean market opened

　　"The unified national carbon market will bring a market scale of 100 billion yuan, and multiple participants may benefit.
" Orient Securities New Energy analyst Lu Rixin believes that my country’s current total carbon emissions exceed 10 billion tons per year and will be included in 2025.
It is estimated that the carbon trading market accounts for 30-40%.

In the future, the scale of China's carbon emission allowance trading market will be more than 3 billion tons, which is equivalent to the EU's total emissions.
Based on the research results of the "2020 China Carbon Price Survey" jointly issued by China Carbon Forum and ICF International Consulting Company, the carbon price in the national carbon emission trading system is expected to rise steadily to 71 yuan/ton in 2025, and the national carbon emission allowance trading market The total market value will reach 284 billion yuan.

　　He pointed out that new energy and carbon asset management will gain growth points, and carbon verification agencies will also achieve substantial business growth.
Based on the calculation of the upper limit of the 5% offset allowance, the current CCER project's annual emission reduction gap is about 150 million tons, and new energy companies and carbon asset development and management companies participating in the development of CCER will benefit.

Estimated at a CCER price of 15 yuan/ton, the gross profit of wind power, photovoltaic and biomass unit power generation will increase by 4.

　　The GF Securities Research Report believes that in the short term, about 50% of carbon emissions are contributed by the electricity and heat production sectors, plus the potential catalytic effect of the carbon market, it is recommended to pay attention to the thermal power sector; manufacturing and construction industries account for nearly 30% of carbon emissions.
%, it is recommended to pay attention to the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors; in addition, pay attention to the energy-saving and environmental protection sectors that benefit comprehensively.
In the medium and long term, it is recommended to focus on energy alternatives to "China Advantage" chains, such as the photovoltaic industry chain, the lithium battery industry chain, and the transmission and distribution side technology iteration (energy storage).

　　Transfer from: China Securities Journal