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Although the new crown epidemic has not been contained, the research and development activities of the biopharmaceutical industry have not stopped
Which "blockbusters" will be on the market in 2022? Which new mechanisms can obtain high valuations? In which areas are R&D investment and sunk costs higher? Which projects are exciting for investors? Which projects are risky and may make investors palpitate?
0 1
TOP10 attention of upcoming new drugs
Which blockbuster drugs will be on the market in 2022?
(Click on the picture to enlarge)
2 AD heavy potential new drugs sprint to the end
In 2022, two new blockbuster AD drugs will sprint to the end of FDA approval: Eli Lilly’s Donanemab and Roche’s Gantenerumab
In addition, even though it has not entered the TOP10 list, Lecanemab developed by Eisai/Bojian is also striving to obtain a "nod" from the regulatory agency in 2022
Aiming at cardiomyopathy and psoriasis, BMS responds to the patent cliff
Small company development, high risk of approval
The small molecule Nrf2 activator Bardoxolone developed by Mirati is used to treat chronic kidney disease (CKD) caused by Alport syndrome.
Adagrasib developed by Reata for the treatment of treated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with KRAS G12C mutations will become the second approved KRAS G12C inhibitor after Amgen Lumakras (Sotorasib)
No project can rule out setbacks from regulatory decisions, but projects owned by developers of small companies may have higher risks
0 2
The most valuable R&D projects TOP10
Which new mechanisms are highly valued?
(Click on the picture to enlarge)
Lirentelimab (AK002) developed by Allakos is a monoclonal antibody that targets sialic acid-binding immunoglobulin-like lectin 8 (SIGLEC-8) for the treatment of eosinophil and mast cell-related diseases
Daiichi Sankyo Pharmaceutical's targeted TROP2 antibody conjugate (ADC) Datopotamab deruxtecan followed closely behind with a net present value of US$6.
Roche's leading anti-Tigit monoclonal antibody Tiragolumab will also announce multiple clinical trial data, which makes 2022 a crucial year for this new immuno-oncology mechanism
Vertex & Crispr's gene editing therapy CTX001 has a net present value of US$5 billion
.
In addition, many drugs developed by companies including Sanofi, Novartis and Eli Lilly have a net present value of more than 3.
5 billion U.
S.
dollars
.
0 3
Top 10 projects with the highest development cost
Which areas require high investment?
The most costly development projects for biopharmaceuticals are mainly estimates of clinical trial costs
.
Table 3 lists the projects with the highest investment in clinical trials
.
(Click on the picture to enlarge)
High investment means high sunk costs
In the field of diseases that require a large number of and lengthy cardiovascular outcome trials to prove the safety of drugs, the input cost of clinical trials will always be among the best, such as Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide for diabetes and obesity, and Novartis's Pelacarsen for high cholesterol and cardiovascular diseases.
, The development cost is on the list
.
Pelacarsen is a new generation of antisense oligonucleotide drugs (ASO), currently in phase III clinical development
.
In 2022, whether the project can publish further clinical trial data is still the focus of investors' attention
.
Compared with other anti-β-amyloid monoclonal antibody developers, Gantenerumab, which can cross the blood-brain barrier, developed by Roche through the "brain shuttle" technology, is undoubtedly a project with a larger investment of its kind
.
Therefore, if the regulatory wind for Alzheimer's disease changes, Roche will lose more than its competitors in terms of sunk costs
.
The new nucleoside reverse transcriptase translocation inhibitor (NRTTI) Islatravir is Merck’s big “bet” in the field of long-acting HIV antiviral
.
Safety issues emerged at the end of 2021 (the total lymphocyte and CD4+ T cell counts of some participants were reduced), making analysts doubt the potential of the project
.
In other areas, the success of the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) drug GSK3888550A is very important to GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and GSK is working hard to restore investor confidence in support
.
GSK and competitors including Pfizer will release key RSV data early this year, which will make respiratory diseases an area of concern in 2022
.
PD-1/L1 extended indications are highly sought after
In terms of expanded indications for marketed drugs, many developers including Merck continue to invest heavily in PD-1/L1 monoclonal antibodies
.
Obviously, the investment of PD-1/L1 monoclonal antibody expansion indication research will greatly reduce the risk of cost compared with the development of new drugs
.